Unsettled weather continues for New England; breaks by the weekend

Unsettled weather has arrived in New England and will be with us for the next few days. Tuesday and Wednesday will be very similar with low pressure tracking to the south of New England and a stationary frontal boundary draped across the region. This is the perfect setup for mainly cloudy days with scattered showers around.

Photo byNew England Storm Center

For the rest of today, the steadiest bouts of rain will be across central New Hampshire and into interior Maine. Rain will begin to become much less widespread in the afternoon, but on and off scattered showers will be across New England (mainly northern) through the entire day. There's just enough instability for some of the showers to produce a rumble of thunder in spots through this evening.

HRRR showing potential weather around midday today (1st image) and around mid-afternoon (2nd image):

Photo byHRRR/Tropical Tidbits

Photo byHRRR/Tropical Tidbits

Wednesday will see very little to no change in the overall setup. Another low will take a track just south of New England, nearly identical to Tuesday's system's track. This will again focus the steadiest rain across the South Shore, Cape Cod and Islands with lighter showers farther north in the morning.

More widely scattered showers will continue through the afternoon and into the evening. Wednesday will also feature an onshore flow, which, along with clouds and showers, will keep temperatures on the cooler side, highs will only top out in the 70s across New England and in some places, the low 70s. Coastal areas will be the coolest and may struggle to get out of the upper 60s. It will be humid, so it won't feel too raw.

HRRR showing potential weather around late afternoon Wednesday:

Photo byHRRR/Tropical Tidbits

On Thursday, the main trough over the Great Lakes will push eastward into New England. This will help budge the stalled frontal boundaries. The boundary to the north will be lifted as a warm front. This places New England in a "warm sector" type of setup with additional rounds of showers and storms Wednesday night through Thursday as the system's cold front approaches.

Photo byNew England Storm Center

While the cold front will likely cross New England during the day Thursday, which would normally raise some concern for severe weather, that threat is looking low at the moment. This comes as instability will likely be lacking due to cloud cover limiting potential heating. This will lead to another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Still, there are some ingredients in place for stronger storms, so isolated ones are possible and trends will be watched over the next 24 hours.

All of this unsettled weather is stemming from New England's placement on the edge of a trough over the center of the country and a ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic. The Atlantic ridge keeps the humidity levels elevated and the atmosphere primed for rainfall while being on the edge of a broad trough sends waves of disturbances into New England.

Photo byNew England Storm Center

Once the cold front crosses New England, humidity will lower once again. Despite that, temperatures will begin a warming trend as high pressure builds in bringing brighter weather. This upcoming weekend may end up very similar to last weekend with seasonable to warm temperatures in the 80s and humidity on the lower end.

Photo byNew England Storm Center

The beginning of next week may bring back full summer heat to close out July as a ridge of high pressure may set up to New England's southwest. This would be a favorable placement for hotter air to get pumped into New England. This is supported by the Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day temperature outlook, which currently covers July 28-August 1. The center also has New England at a moderate risk for excessive heat on July 30 & 31.

Photo byClimate Prediction Center