CFL Week 11 Picks: Montreal Alouettes vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders, August 16, 2024

It's the battle of the CFL's best as the East-leading Alouettes head to Regina to face the West-leading Roughriders on Friday Night Football. Kick-off is at 9:00 pm EST.

Both starting quarterbacks are healthy and will return to the lineup, but not quite in the capacity we hoped for. Cody Fajardo is dressed for the Als but will be the backup to Davis Alexander, who has played very well in his absence. The Riders finally get Trever Harris back, hoping that adds some consistency to their offense.

Still, there's lots of intriguing storylines and money to be made, so let's get to it.

Key Stats

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Montreal Alouettes (8-1)

As seen in our CFL Power Rankings, the Alouettes have been the best team in the CFL right from Week 1, and no injury or setback has thrown them off the goal of repeating as Grey Cup Champions.

Fajardo was having an M.O.P caliber season before going down with an injury, but Davis Alexander has managed the offense perfectly in his place. In three games, he is 51-for-69, throwing for 687 yards, five touchdowns, and only one interception. As good as the Riders' defense is, they are last in pass yards allowed, which could pave the way for Alexander's biggest night of the season.

Another offensive star, receiver Tyson Philpot, went down with an injury in Week 9. Charleston Rambo has been Alexander's go-to guy since then, catching 13 passes for 210 yards and three touchdowns over the last two weeks. Again, with a poor pass defense on the other side of the ball, look for Rambo to have a big night.

Montreal's defense vs. the Riders' offense is a very interesting matchup. The Riders' running game hasn't been particularly dangerous the last few weeks, but star back A.J. Ouellette is back for Saskatchewan.

The Als are 7th in the CFL, allowing 104.4 yards per game. In the passing game, Montreal's defense is 2nd in the CFL, allowing 242.8 yards per game. Trevor Harris is a terrific passer, but he's been out for so long one wonders about how rusty he could be, and if this defense will have his number.

Saskatchewan Roughriders (5-3-1)

The Riders return home after a heartbreaking tie in Ottawa last week. They are a perfect 4-0 in Regina and hope to increase their lead in the West with a win on Friday. It's hard to know exactly what to expect, since their two most important producers on offense return from injury.

Trevor Harris hasn't started since Week 3, but his return is huge for the Riders. In his three starts, Harris threw for 872 yards, seven touchdowns, and three interceptions. Montreal has an incredible pass defense, which makes this a hard spot to return to the lineup, even at home.

RB Ouellette also returns to the lineup after being out since Week 7. In six games this year, he's run for 389 yards and three scores. While he is one of the best backs in the league, he's been banged up all year, and it's been hard for him to get into a groove. The Als' biggest weakness is their run defense, which is a perfect spot for Ouellette to get the ball a lot and get back to what he does best.

One of Saskatchewan's strengths is its run defense. Unfortunately for them, Montreal's running game isn't a huge threat anyway. Against the pass, they allow a CFL-worst 306.2 yards per game, and no matter who is behind center for the Alouettes, they have enough weapons to expose the Riders. Another strength of this defense is its ability to turn the ball over. They have 14 interceptions and 9 recovered fumbles, both of which lead the CFL. Turnovers will be a must against the best team in the CFL.

Prediction

Getting Harris and Ouellette back is huge, and being undefeated at home is a plus. That being said, it won't be enough to take down the defending champs. Montreal's passing game has the ability to expose this Riders' defense, even with the veterans on the sidelines. Two points are risky in a season that has been unpredictable on every level, so take Montreal (-125) on the money line.

Charleston Rambo is the go-to moneymaker on CFL Friday Night Football. In nine games this season, Rambo has had four-plus receptions in six of them. With Philpot out, over 4.5 receptions (+100) is our favorite play of the night. In two weeks as their number one guy, Rambo has 86 and 124 yards, and against this pass defense, over 56.5 (-135) is an absolute lock.

Davis Alexander's props are not available yet on most sportsbooks, but keep a look out for his passing yards. If they're less than 280.5, take the over.

Final Pick

Montreal Alouettes Moneyline (-125), Over 50 (-110)

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Article originally written by Marc Sautter