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The National Hurricane Center is currently tracking three tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean, the agency said Wednesday morning. Even so, forecasters aren't yet predicting an end to a surprising lull in hurricane activity.
The past few weeks have been remarkably quiet for Atlantic storm activity. In fact, the Atlantic has seen no named storm formations since Ernesto on August 12, according to Colorado State University hurricane forecaster Phil Klotzbach, who said that only one other time since 1966 has the Atlantic not produced any named stormsbetween August 13 and September 3. That other year was 1968, when a total of only 8 named storms formed.
"This pronounced quiet period is especially remarkable given that it coincides with the time of year where the Atlantic climatologically gets very busy," Klotzbach wrote in an online forecast update published Sept. 3.
Hurricane forecasters watch 3 tropical waves in Atlantic
The first wave is currently moving westward at about 20 mph, the NHC said, and is producing "a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms" near southeastern Cuba, Jamaica and across portions of the central Caribbean Sea.
The NHC says "some development" is possible late this week as the wave slows down over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, or early next week over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane center says the wave has a 30 percent chance of development over the next seven days.
The second wave is located about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. According to the NHC, development of this system is expected to be slow to occur over the next couple of days as it moves west-northwestward.
The NHC says environmental conditions are "expected to become unfavorable" for additional development by the end of the week, and gives the wave a 10 percent chance of development over the next seven days.
The third and final wave is located in the far eastern Atlantic, and some development is expected as it moves slowly northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic, the NHC said. This system could produce locally heavy rains across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands Thursday, and has a 20 percent chance of development over the next seven days, according to the hurricane center.
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Atlantic storm tracker
Where are the hurricanes?
Despite the widespread warm water across the basin, an abundance of dry air, dust from the Saharan Desert and disruptive winds have hampered tropical development, according to AccuWeather . “We’re also monitoring a large pocket of cold water off the western coast of Africa,” AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said, adding that it is interfering with the showers and thunderstorms that commonly go on to become tropical storms and hurricanes.
So far this year, there have been more storms in the Pacific than the Atlantic , and that's a bit of a surprise, forecasters say.
What's the Atlantic hurricane season forecast?
Some forecast teams, including AccuWeather, are revising their predictions of an extraordinarily active hurricane season. AccuWeather, which had predicted that as many as 25 storms would form, has revised that number down to 16-20, which is still above the average of 14.
For the immediate future, Klotzbach's team sees below-average activity over the next couple of weeks, as large-scale weather factors continue to conspire to reduce storm activity.
"However, the Atlantic hurricane season does not end in mid-September," Klotzbach wrote. "We still have an extremely warm Atlantic and a tropical Pacific that will likely be trending more towards La Niña as the season progresses." The La Nina climate pattern tends to boost Atlantic hurricane activity.
The Atlantic hurricane season lasts until Nov. 30.
Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at Gdhauari@gannett.com.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Storm tracker: National Hurricane Center tracking 3 tropical disturbances in Atlantic
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