'He seems real to me': Tim Walz leads JD Vance on favorability in exclusive poll

Do more Americans want to get a beer with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz or Ohi o Sen. JD Vance?

There's still a long stretch until the 2024 presidential election, but Walz leads Vance on favorability, according to a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll. Thirty-six percent of likely voters surveyed after the Democratic convention said they had a favorable view of former President Donald Trump's running mate, Vance, while Vice President Kamala Harris ' VP pick, Walz, garnered 48%.

Vance fared worse among independent voters, with 47% saying they had an unfavorable view of him. Thirty-six percent of independents said the same of Walz.

The Ohio lawmaker also trailed the Minnesota governor in favorability among Black Americans and female respondents. Still, he led his Democratic rival among male and white respondents.

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Over half of Black voters polled said they had a favorable view of Walz, whereas only 15% said they had a favorable view of Vance. Walz also led Vance among women and respondents ages 35 to 49 years old.

Vice presidential picks have taken center stage this election year. Speculation surrounding Trump's VP pick swirled for months, and Harris ascended to the top of the Democratic ticket after President Joe Biden ended his reelection bid in July.

Likely voters were also asked if Vance and Walz were qualified to become president, and Walz led Vance by 12 percentage points, 54% to 42%.

One thousand likely voters were surveyed between Aug. 25 and Aug. 28 by cellphones and landlines. The poll had an overall margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. Polling among independent voters has a margin of error of +/- 5.9 percentage points, and the margin of error among Black voters is +/- 9 points.

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'He seems real to me'

What's to explain Walz leading Vance on favorability? Tammy Ferrell, a 52-year-old Democrat from South Carolina, told USA TODAY Walz seems more like an everyday American than his Republican counterpart.

"He seems real to me, he goes through everyday life like the rest of us," she said. "He seems more like someone I would see in an everyday fashion."

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On the other side, Ferrell said she hasn't seen compassion from Vance, explaining " I don't feel he's someone that can relate to everyday life."

But it's not just about personas for Ferrell. She called 2024 the most crucial election of her lifetime for reproductive rights. She believes, despite Trump and Vance not calling for a national abortion ban , they could further restrict the procedure.

Social media has also played a key role in pushing perceptions of each candidate this year. Walz and his Midwestern quirks have taken the internet by storm, whereas Vance has faced viral misinformation and other jabs.

Noa Manenerag, a 40-year-old bookkeeper and Democrat from Flint, Michigan, said their news consumption has mainly been from apps like TikTok and Facebook, and it hasn’t helped their image of Vance.

“I’ve heard some really, really crazy stuff about him,” they told USA TODAY,

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Along with outright falsehoods being spread on the internet, Manenerag said Vance's interactions with voters have picked up steam. Despite not knowing if some memes are representative of Vance's character, they're working to repel them further from the senator.

Manenerag pointed to Project 2025 , the conservative political playbook created by the Heritage Foundation and former Trump allies that is not officially tied to the campaign, as a reason they don't trust Vance.

Trump has publicly said he doesn't support the 900-page document and many of its hard-right policies , including overhauling government agencies and implementing anti-LGBTQ+ efforts. Vance wrote a foreword to a book authored by one of the architects of the plan, though he and Trump have tried to distance themselves from the document in recent months.

“I just don’t think (Vance is) for the people,” Manenerag said.

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'It's a crapshoot'

John Harlan, a 52-year-old independent, voted for Biden in 2020. But he has no idea who he's voting for in 2024. The retired Sacramento, California, resident told USA TODAY both parties have become too extreme, and that's especially true with the vice presidential picks.

"I have no faith in either candidate," he said. "It's a crapshoot."

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Harlan said he would prefer a presidential ticket with a Republican and a Democrat, similar to the push from the centrist organization No Labels . The group announced earlier this year it was ending its effort to create a unity ticket. Now, Harlan said he's forced to choose between the far ends of the spectrum.

He said he can't trust Vance over his stance on abortion and previous criticism of Trump. To him, Walz isn't much better: "He creeps me out," Harlan said.

The California resident takes issue with some of Walz's liberal policies and actions as governor of Minnesota, including signing a bill that made it mandatory for schools to provide menstrual products available to all students, regardless of the gender assigned at birth, in public schools across the state.

"I think it's going too far," he said.

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Harlan said even with less than two months until Election Day, he is at square one in deciding who he's going to cast his ballot for, and to him, these VP candidates are making his choice even harder.

"I don't vote based on the party, I try to vote whatever the greater good of the country is," he said. "I honestly don't know."

— Sam Woodward is the Minnesota elections reporting fellow for USA TODAY focusing on Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz's candidacy. You can reach her at swoodward@gannett.com , on X @woodyreports, and on Threads @samjowoody .

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 'He seems real to me': Tim Walz leads JD Vance on favorability in exclusive poll