Storm tracker: NHC tracking 2 Atlantic tropical waves, one could bring rain to US

The National Hurricane Center on Saturday is tracking two tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean including one in the Gulf of Mexico, which could bring storms to the U.S. in the coming days.

The system in the gulf could bring strong winds and heavy rains to Texas and Louisiana early next week. “It’ll be stewing around this weekend,” Bob Smerbeck, a senior meteorologist with AccuWeather , told USA TODAY.

Steering flow will get it moving and by early next week, the system could reach South Texas by Monday before heading along the gulf to Louisiana, possibly entering the Mississippi River Valley, he said. “Then, you have to react to a moving system coming at you,” Smerbeck said.

While those systems were being monitored, flood watches remained in effect until Saturday night for Florida's coastal Big Bend and Panhandle.

However, neither system is expected to break the surprising lull in hurricane activity in the Atlantic over the last few weeks. Since Aug. 12, no named storms have formed – a stretch unmatched in 56 years, Phil Klotzbach, senior hurricane scientist at Colorado State University, told USA TODAY recently.

Experts had predicted a hyperactive hurricane season , with up to 25 named storms. But so far only five have formed, with three evolving into hurricanes.

Where are the predicted hurricanes?: Experts fear Atlantic storms still coming.

National Hurricane Center tracking two tropical waves in the Atlantic

The first system being tracked by the NHC is a tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche and west of the Yucatán Peninsula, which juts out to separate the Gulf of Mexico from the Caribbean Sea.

The system is currently producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Guatemala, southeastern Mexico, and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, the center says.

Developing low pressure could assist in it becoming a tropical depression during the early or middle part of next week as it slowly moves north-northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. If wind shear lightens, very warm waters could help it strengthen into one system and head northward to the U.S., AccuWeather's Smerbeck said.

Forecasters give it a 60% chance of developing over the next seven days.

A second system, currently in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean, is producing showers and thunderstorms. With low pressure possibly forming over the next few days, forecasters give the system a 30% chance of developing as it moves west-northwestward.

Tropical systems being tracked Friday by the National Hurricane Center were no longer on the NHC's tracking maps Saturday morning.

What is a tropical wave?

The term "tropical wave" does not apply to waves, or undulations in the ocean, but is atmospheric in nature, according to AccuWeather.com .

Tropical waves are elongated areas, or troughs, of relatively low pressure that move east to west across the tropics, moving westward from Africa into the Atlantic.

A wave can lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone, which in turn may develop into a tropical storm or hurricane, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration .

Atlantic storm tracker

As peak of hurricane season approaches, what to expect

Even though the 2024 hurricane season may not be a record-setting one, experts still expect more activity. The season typically peaks about September 10 , and there is still almost three months until the season's Dec. 1 culmination.

“From our perspective right now, things are still on track,” Dan Harnos, a meteorologist with the team at the Climate Prediction Center who prepares the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's seasonal outlook, told USA TODAY Thursday.

Conditions are still favorable, with very warm and record-warm ocean temperatures across much of the Atlantic, Harnos said. “There’s plenty of room for the tide to turn with all the warm water out there. Things could change quickly.”

Contributing: John Gallas, Cheryl McCloud, Dinah Voyles Pulver, and Doyle Rice, USA TODAY Network.

Follow Mike Snider on X and Threads: @mikesnider & mikegsnider .

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Storm tracker: NHC tracking 2 Atlantic tropical waves, one could bring rain to US