A good Deshaun Watson can lead the Browns to glory. History isn't on his side.

There were several problems with the Cleveland Browns’ decision to trade for Deshaun Watson. Foremost among them was more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL itself later described as a pattern of “predatory behavior.”

This didn’t keep Cleveland, desperate in its quest for a franchise quarterback that could exceed the modest heights of Baker Mayfield or Derek Anderson, from mortgaging its future to acquire him. Not only did the Browns ship three first round picks, one third rounder and two fourth rounders to the Houston Texans, they also gave Watson the largest fully guaranteed contract extension in NFL history. A $230 million deal means the quarterback is on the roster at cap hits of just under $64 million annually through the 2026 season.

At the time, this made sense from an on-field standpoint if not an off-field one. Mayfield’s quarterback rating dropped by a dozen points between 2020 and 2021, vacating the momentum of Cleveland’s first playoff win since the franchise’s rebirth with a losing season. That he went on to be, statistically, 2022’s worst starting quarterback, only reinforced that.

Only… Watson hasn’t been better. He also hasn’t been available. Thanks to league suspension and injury, he’s played only a dozen games in two seasons as a Brown. When he’s been on the field, he’s sprinkled occasionally inspired play into a bland casserole of underwhelming play. Which is a problem for a team a 38-year-old Joe Flacco was capable of pushing to the postseason.

Watson hasn’t been close to the player he was in Houston

Let’s separate Watson into his Houston era and his Cleveland one. As a Texan, he was a revelation — albeit one cultivating a dark reputation off the field. In his four seasons with the team that drafted him, he made an immediate impact as a player with MVP credibility. His 104.5 passer rating was elite and he averaged more than 500 rushing yards per 17 games to bolster his case as a game-changer.

The chart above measures expected points added (EPA) per play and completion percentage over expected (CPOE) to grade quarterbacks based on their impact on the game. Watson’s composite ranked third best among passers to play at least 1,000 snaps between 2017 and 2020, behind only Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees.

Conversely, there have been 41 quarterbacks to field at least 450 snaps since 2022 — Watson clocks in with 452 as a Brown. Here’s where he lands in the composite rankings.

Goooooooo! Watson has been the league’s 34th most efficient quarterback in a league where there are 32 starters. He’d been less essential than passers like Taylor Heinicke, Kenny Pickett and Gardner Minshew. Those three guys, combined, made roughly $14 million last fall — or roughly 22 percent of Watson’s $63.7 million cap hit in 2024.

There have been good moments cutting through that fog to help provide a glimmer of hope for the Browns. Watson was genuinely great against the Tennessee Titans and Arizona Cardinals last fall, throwing four touchdown passes without an interception in a pair of games Cleveland won by a total of 54 to three.

Those also happened to be the only two games in 2023 in which he didn’t throw an interception, and that includes a tilt with the Indianapolis Colts in which he threw only five passes.

This is a problem, because the Browns badly need him to simply be competent to keep their AFC North title hopes alive.

The Browns’ supporting cast could be elite once more

Aside from Watson, the biggest question the Browns face is whether Nick Chubb will return to world-eater form after last year’s torn ACL limited him to only two games. The four-time Pro Bowler is an other-worldly runner, a player whose ability to cut and manipulate the turf beneath his feet suggest a flexible relationship with the physical world. He was chugging along in a small sample size before last year’s injury as well — 170 yards on only 28 carries.

There’s reason to be concerned, however. He’s not in the midst of a superhuman, Adrian Peterson-style recovery. He’s currently got no timeline for return and, even without the injury, is headed toward a break point for NFL running backs. He turns 29 years old in December and has more than 1,200 carries to his credit, which is when many similarly successful backs begin to lose their top gear.

His absence wasn’t fatal last season, but Cleveland’s yards per carry dropped from 4.7 in 2022 (11th best in the NFL) to 3.9 (26th) without him. Missing more time will mean more strain on a passing game that struggled consistently thrive last season. It will also mean more pressure on Amari Cooper and David Njoku to carry the passing game.

The two were remarkable in 2023, thriving despite generally terrible quarterback play in a season where five different guys started behind center (and Flacco was the best). Cooper’s 1,250 yards last season in 15 games were remarkable; his 2.29 adjusted yards per route run ranked 13th best in the NFL last season, sandwiched between Keenan Allen and Mike Evans (per Sumer Sports). Njoku, playing despite facial burns much of the year, had a career best 81 catches and 882 receiving yards. His 1.6 yards per route run were seventh best among tight ends.

But each carries questions of his own into 2024 beyond just “what if his quarterback(s) stinks again?” Cooper is now 30 years old, and while his size insulates him from a loss of athleticism, it’s fair to wonder when an age related decline is coming. Njoku put up the best numbers of his career but this was as much of a volume game as anything; his 7.2 yards per target were his lowest since 2019.

The Browns can suffer minor downturns from all three if the quality of quarterbacking improves. They may be able to make it back to the postseason even if the man behind center is subpar thanks to 2023’s top-ranked defense in terms of both yards allowed and passing defense efficiency.

Myles Garrett remains to mash opposing quarterbacks into a puddle. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah has developed into one of the best young off-ball linebackers in the league. Greg Newsome II was the ugly duckling among the team’s three starting cornerbacks and he was still PRETTY DANG GOOD.

Passer rating allowed in coverage, Browns cornerbacks 2023:

• Martin Emerson: 46.3
• Denzel Ward: 56.2
• Greg Newsome II: 74.8

All those guys are back in 2024. So are safeties Grant Delpit and Juan Thornhill. And while Za’Darius Smith’s 5.5 sacks were a low result for him, his 29 pressures were only eight fewer than Garrett’s and a top 30 number last fall. Smith, Shelby Harris and Jordan Hicks are the only projected regulars over the age of 29 on the roster.

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This all creates a frightening reality for both the Browns and the rest of the AFC North. If Watson can even approach his Houston Texans form — the way he played before more than 20 counts of sexual misconduct were levied against him — he’ll be the best quarterback the team has had in decades. If he can merely be as efficient as 2020 Baker Mayfield, he’s got a stronger supporting cast capable of tripling the franchise’s postseason wins since 1995.

Cleveland’s defense will remain elite. Its offense won’t be able to match that, but could catch up in stretches. But that hasn’t been the case for Watson unless he’s been playing some of the worst teams in football — teams leagues below the competition he’ll face in a stacked AFC North.

There’s no way out but through for the Browns. Their bet on a guy an NFL review suggested was a sexual predator has thus far failed, sinking premium draft picks and now roughly a quarter of their salary cap into a player who hasn’t even cracked the top 30 quarterbacks in his limited time in Ohio. Maybe Cleveland could eat $46 million in dead salary cap space next offseason by designating him a post-June 1 release, but it looks like this is the guy the Browns are stuck with through at least 2025.

That leaves an offense whose fate will be decided by a bunch of “ifs”. And a defense that can carry this team even in stretches when none of those ifs pan out.