UFC on ESPN 61: Damon Jackson vs. Chepe Mariscal odds, picks and predictions

In a 3-round featherweight bout on the main card, Damon Jackson and Chepe Mariscal meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 61 — also known as UFC Vegas 95 — at the UFC APEX. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 61: Jackson vs. Mariscal odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin 5 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 7 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+.

Records: Jackson (23-6-1) | Mariscal (16-6-0)

Jackson picked up a split-decision win over Alexander Hernandez April 6, halting a 2-bout losing skid. He suffered a unanimous-decision loss to Billy Quarantillo in Aug. 2023, while getting knocked out in Round 2 against Dan Ige Jan. 2023.

Mariscal has won all 3 of his fights since arriving at the UFC level, and he has won 6 straight pro bouts dating back to March 4, 2022. His last fight was a split-decision win against Morgan Charriere April 6, and 2 of his 3 UFC bouts have ended up going the distance.

Jackson stands 4 inches taller than his counterpart and holds a 2-inch reach advantage. Mariscal has a 4.70-to-3.00 significant strikes landed per minute advantage and is much more accurate at 64.77% to just 49.29%. Jackson has a 1.38-to-0.39 submission average advantage.

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UFC on ESPN 61: Jackson vs. Mariscal odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:10 a.m. ET.

• Fight result (2-way line): Jackson +162 (bet $100 to win $162) | Mariscal -194 (bet $194 to win $1000
• Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -116 | Under -110)
• Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +110 | No -140)

UFC on ESPN 61: Jackson vs. Mariscal picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Mariscal (-194) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return, and that’s a little too expensive straight up on the 2-way line.

JACKSON (+162) is worth a look as a rather moderate underdog. His ground game is good, and Mariscal hasn’t seen an opponent with a wrestling game like his.

If you really want to get crazy with the potential for a big payoff, JACKSON BY SUBMISSION (+550) is worth a roll of the dice. If Jackson can get Mariscal to the mat, it’s not going to go well for the favorite, as he is a puncher and more of a toe-to-toe brawler.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-110) is worth playing lightly, but go with a half-unit play at most.

We’re looking for this fight to end with a tap, and NO (-140): WILL FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is certainly not priced out of line.

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