Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks odds, picks and predictions

The Philadelphia Phillies (69-48) and Arizona Diamondbacks (65-53) close out a 4-game series Sunday. First pitch from Chase Field is at 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 3-3

The Phillies have dropped 2 in a row since winning the series opener Thursday. They lost 11-1 Saturday and are 4-9 in their last 13 games.

The Diamondbacks are 14-3 in their last 17 games. They are seeking their 8th consecutive series win.

Phillies at Diamondbacks projected starters

LHP Cristopher Sanchez vs. RHP Merrill Kelly

Sanchez (8-7, 3.27 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 through 126 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 6-2 road win over Los Angeles Dodgers Tuesday
• Win in last outing snapped 3-start losing streak
• Career vs. Diamondbacks (regular season): 1-1, 5.19 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.04 WHIP, 6.2 K/9 in 3 appearances (1 start)

Kelly (2-0, 2.19 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 0.93 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 through 24 2/3 innings.

• Coming off IL to make 1st start since April 23 (shoulder strain)
• Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 3-2 home loss to Chicago Cubs April 23
• Career vs. Phillies (regular season): 1-1, 2.75 ERA (19 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 0.97 WHIP, 7.3 K/9 in 3 starts

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Phillies at Diamondbacks odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Phillies -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+135) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-165)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Phillies at Diamondbacks picks and predictions

Prediction

Diamondbacks 6, Phillies 5

The DIAMONDBACKS (+100) have won 7 consecutive series and are 14-3 in their last 17 games. They have had 3 consecutive 4-game winning streaks before losing 1 game. They get back Kelly, who was fantastic before his injury in April.

The Phillies have lost 9 of their last 13 games.

BET DIAMONDBACKS (+100).

Eight of the last 9 times the Diamondbacks have covered the spread as underdogs, they have won the game outright.

At -165 odds to cover the +1.5, it makes much more sense to just go with the moneyline.

PASS.

Four of the last 5 starts for Sanchez have not surpassed 8 total runs.

Kelly has not allowed more than 2 runs in any start.

But the Phillie have had 10 of their last 12 games finish with at least 8 total runs.

For Arizona, it is 12 of their last 14.

BET OVER 8.5 (-120).

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