Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

The Chicago Cubs (59-60) and Cleveland Guardians (69-49) begin a 3-game interleague series Monday. First pitch from Progressive Field is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Guardians won 2-1 in 2023

The Guardians dropped the 1st 2 games in the Twin Cities, letting Minnesota shave Cleveland’s lead in the AL Central to just 1 1/2 games. However, the Guardians restored order, winning the final 2 games to gain the 4-game split, leaving with the same 3 1/2-game lead they entered the series with.

Cleveland had lost 7 in a row, but it has now won 2 in a row. It returns home where it has dropped 5 straight games, with the Over going 6-1 in the past 7 at Progressive Field.

The Cubs swept a 2-game interleague series with the crosstown rival Chicago White Sox, and the Cubbies have now won 4 in a row, all against AL Central Division opponents. Since July 31, the Cubs are a solid 8-2, while the Over is 7-3 in those 10 outings.

Cubs at Guardians projected starters

LHP Shota Imanaga vs. RHP Ben Lively

Imanaga (9-2, 3.06 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 123 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 7 IP, 2 ER, 2 H (1 HR), 1 BB, 10 K in 7-3 home victory vs. Minnesota Twins last Tuesday
• 2024 road splits: 5-1, 2.75 ERA (52 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.18 WHIP, .246 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 12 BB, 46 K in 9 starts
• Has never faced Guardians

Lively (10-7, 3.59 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 110 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 2 K in 7-3 home setback vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Wednesday

• 2024 home splits: 6-2, 3.14 ERA (51 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 8 HR, 1.10 WHIP, .226 OBA, 14 BB, 41 K in 9 starts
• Career vs. Cubs: 0-2, 19.00 ERA (9 IP, 19 ER), 2.44 WHIP, 8 HR, 4 BB, 10 K in 2 starts

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Cubs at Guardians odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:34 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Cubs -116 (bet $116 to win $100) | Guardians -102 (bet $102 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs -1.5 (+140) | Guardians +1.5 (-170)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -122)

Cubs at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 4, Guardians 3

It’s Shota-Day, and that means the CUBS (-116) are a solid play in this interleague series opener against the Guardians (-102).

Chicago has won the past 5 games started by the rookie southpaw, and the Cubs are 17-4 in his 21 starts so far this season.

The Guardians have gotten tremendous pitching from the journeyman Lively, and this should be a well-pitched game.

If you’d like a little bit of insurance, and you want to back the home side on the run line, the GUARDIANS +1.5 (-170) aren’t priced out of line.

Remember, though, Cleveland has dropped the past 5 games at home, and only 1 of those games was a 1-run game, so be careful.

UNDER 8.5 (-122) is a solid play based on Cleveland’s recent power outage on offense. The Guardians are averaging 3.0 runs per game in the past 6 outings, with the Under going 3-1-1 in the past 5 contests.

The Cubs have split the Over-Under in the past 6 games. The Over has cashed in 3 straight starts by Imanaga, mainly due to offensive support. The Cubs have backed him with 21 runs in the 3-game span. The Under actually has a slight 11-10 advantage in the southpaw’s 21 outings to date.

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