Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and predictions

The Houston Astros (62-55) and Tampa Bay Rays (59-58) meet Monday to begin a 3-game series. First pitch in the opener at Tropicana Field will be at 6:50 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Rays lead 2-1

Houston, which dropped 2 of 3 in a low-scoring home series vs. the Rays Aug. 2-4, head into this set on a 5-game winning streak. The Astros hit a combined 7 home runs at Fenway Park Saturday-Sunday, and they own a .967 OPS in the win streak.

Rays pitching held Houston to just 4 runs in the early-August series. But Tampa Bay is 2-4 since.

Astros at Rays projected starters

LHP Framber Valdez vs. RHP Taj Bradley

Valdez (11-5, 3.46 ERA) is making his 21st start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 125 IP.

• Last outing: Win, 8 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 1 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 4-2 win at Texas Rangers Tuesday
• Career vs. Rays: 0-1, 10.13 ERA (5 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 9 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 1 start
• Has held opposing batters to a .559 OPS over his last 6 starts

Bradley (6-6, 3.07 ERA) makes his 17th start. He owns a 1.09 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 91 IP.

• Last outing: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 9 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 5-2 loss at St. Louis Cardinals Wednesday
• Career vs. Astros: 1-1, 8.64 ERA (8 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 7 H, 4 BB, 10 K in 2 starts
• Clocked an 0.82 ERA across 55 IP from June 8-July 25, but has yielded 9 runs over his last 9 2/3 IP

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Astros at Rays odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:29 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Astros -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Rays +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+135) | Rays +1.5 (-160)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Astros at Rays picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 5, Rays 4

Houston is on a roll of late and is 6-1 across its last 7 road contests. Tampa Bay has dropped 3 straight series openers.

Valdez has been sharp enough that the road-favorite price on the Astros is still attractive here.

At 3.93 runs per game and 4.35 RPG allowed, Tampa’s over-.500 record is suspect.

BACK HOUSTON (-130).

PASS: the Houston ML play has less juice and better leverage.

A good pitching matchup has this total sitting down low. But Bradley has not been too efficient or effective his last couple of starts and is facing an Astros club swinging hot bats. Valdez had a lofty pitch count in his last start, and his return-after-100-pitches starts the last couple seasons have not been great. And left-handers bring out the best side of the Rays’ platoon splits (.754 OPS vs. lefty pitching).

BACK THE OVER 7.5 (+100).

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