Could the Oklahoma Sooners make the playoff with 3 losses?

Entering the 2024 season a lot has been made of the Oklahoma Sooners schedule in year one in the SEC. The schedule is tough, considering OU will play six teams ranked inside the top 15 of the US LBM Coaches Poll.

Due to the evolving nature of college football, with conference realignment and the expanded College Football Playoff, contending for a national title is going to look a lot different than it ever has.

In most years, your national champion will have one or fewer losses. However, we’ve reached the era of college football, where the team that wins the title could have multiple losses during the regular season and still go on to win the national championship.

And given the depth of the SEC and the Big Ten, there’s a reality where a three-loss team could make the playoff and (cough, cough) win the whole thing.

247Sports Brad Crawford explored a number of teams that could make the College Football Playoff with three losses. He included teams like Texas, USC, and Florida, among others. But one team he didn’t include in his discussion was Oklahoma. The Sooners have one of the tougher schedules in the nation, and arguably the second most difficult schedule in the SEC.

Nobody within the program or Oklahoma Sooners fan base would ever be satisfied with a three-loss regular season. But in the new era of college football, there’s a path in which the Sooners could go through the regular season with three losses and still make the College Football Playoff.

The Sooners will play Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss, Missouri, LSU, and

. Those six teams are inside the top 15 of the preseason Coaches Poll. And they’ll all likely be in the top 15 of the poll when the play Oklahoma. They will be marquee games that will have SEC title and playoff implications. Those six games will likely determine the 2024 season for the Sooners. Go 4-2 in those games and the Sooners are a playoff team. Go 3-3 and they’ll be on the fringe.

If Oklahoma’s losses are to teams like Texas, Alabama, and Ole Miss, three teams ranked in the top six of the preseason poll, then there’s a good chance the Sooners could earn one of those final at-large bids with wins over Missouri, LSU, and Tennessee along with a road win over Auburn. If they can include a win over Texas, Bama, or Ole Miss, it’ll give them an even better chance.

Currently, the ESPN Football Power Index gives the Oklahoma Sooners a 36.6% chance to make the playoff in 2024 and just a 5.1% chance to win the SEC. Their chance to make the playoff puts the Sooners 10th in the nation, even with a projected win-loss record of 8.2-3.9.

In the course of college football history, a three-loss team would be out of the running for a national title. But that’s in the past. It’s a new day in college football. Teams with two losses will still have a lot to play for in November. And the Oklahoma Sooners will be one of those teams with a lot to playoff in the final month of the season.

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