Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

The Pittsburgh Pirates (56-62) and San Diego Padres (67-53) conclude a 3-game series Wednesday. First pitch from Petco Park is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Padres lead 5-0; won 2-1 Monday and 3-0 Tuesday

Pittsburgh has lost 11 times in their last 12 games after Tuesday’s shutout. It was the Pirates 5th consecutive loss to San Diego and they have been outscored 27-15. LF Bryan Reynolds was the only Pirate to have more than 1 hit.

Padres starter Michael King struck out 10 over 6 shutout innings. San Diego got a solo HR from LF David Peralta and 2 RBI from 3B Manny Machado. The Padres have won 9 of their last 10 games and try to sweep the Pirates for the 2nd time in August.

Pirates at Padres projected starters

RHP Mitch Keller vs. LHP Martin Perez

Keller (10-6, 3.56 ERA) makes his 24th career start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 136 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 7 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 9-5 loss at the Los Angeles Dodgers Friday
• 2024 road splits: 5-4, 4.59 ERA (66 2/3 IP, 37 R (34 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 in 12 starts
• Career vs. Padres: 2-2, 3.86 (21 IP, 9 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 in 4 starts

Perez (2-5, 4.78 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.51 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 96 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 6 K in a 6-2 win at the Miami Marlins Friday
• 2024 home splits: 1-2, 3.93 ERA (52 2/3 IP, 25 R (23 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 in 10 starts
• Career vs. Pirates: 2-1, 4.00 (18 IP, 8 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 4.0 K/9 in 3 starts

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Pirates at Padres odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:44 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Pirates +118 (bet $100 to win $118) | Padres -138 (bet $138 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Pirates +1.5 (-188) | Padres -1.5 (+155)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Pirates at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 6, Pirates 5

BET PADRES (-138).

All the momentum is with the Padres right now and I’m going to ride that on Wednesday afternoon. These are 2 teams going in opposite directions.

It seems like the wheels are coming off after the All-Star break for the Pirates; they are 8-15 since. The team’s ERA has jumped nearly 50 points. I do like Keller better than Perez in this matchup, but it’s hard to trust Pittsburgh’s lineup at this point.

San Diego is batting .284 as a team and their team ERA has dropped over a full point since the All-Star break. It’s hard to ignore that kind of improvement.

PASS.

I don’t trust Perez enough to take the run line with the better odds, which is why I’ll stick with the moneyline.

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PASS.

My lean would be to the Over because of this pitching matchup but the trends are just not giving me a good feeling. They’ve been Under in the 1st 2 games in this series, but they went over in 2 of their 3 games in their last series just a week ago. Both teams are 5-5 against the Over in their last 10 games as well. I’m just going to stay away from this bet.

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