5 overvalued fantasy football players to avoid

Overrated players achieve that dubious distinction because one fantasy football owner is willing to take a risk on a talented player with question marks or baggage of some kind. When a player is questionably tabbed to be a weekly fantasy starter, someone will make a case that they aren’t overrated and only figure it out after it’s too late.

These are five players who will be drafted to play significant roles on fantasy rosters but may struggle to live up to their draft slotting.

5

San Francisco 49ers WR Deebo Samuel

Samuel is one of the most talented dual-threats in the league. He put together a strong 2023 season, catching 60 passes for 892 yards, rushing 37 times for 225 yards, and scoring 12 touchdowns. As such, he earned an ADP of WR9, making him somebody’s No. 1 fantasy wide receiver.

The problem with drafting Samuel this high isn’t a question of his skill or ability. It’s the wealth of talent the San Francisco 49ers have alongside Samuel. Fellow wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk also is ranked as a WR1 in 12-team leagues. George Kittle is a top-five tight end. Christian McCaffrey is the No. 1 pick in almost every draft.

How big a problem should this be considered? Last year Samuel finished fourth on his own team in receptions and third in receiving yardage. McCaffrey has proved to be a solid goal-line runner, which cuts into one of Samuel’s strengths. Additionally, he has missed time in each of his five seasons with injuries.

Samuel has earned being a fantasy WR1, but there are too many factors making that selection too high compared to other WR1 players.

4

Houston Texans RB Joe Mixon

Mixon had five 1,000-yard rushing seasons in seven years in Cincinnati, but the Bengals opted to release him in the offseason and swap him out with Zack Moss the same day. Consider it a red flag that shouldn’t be ignored.

We’ve seen moves like this before. Last year, the Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys abruptly released Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott and it turned out they both knew something others didn’t – that Cook and Elliott had hit the proverbial wall. Both went to the AFC East last year and floundered.

This isn’t to say that Mixon is going to be a bust with the Houston Texans. He was brought in to continue the legacy he built in Cincinnati, but aging veteran running backs with long histories rarely dominate for new teams.

Dameon Pierce had a brutal 2023 season but remains a timeshare option, especially if Mixon struggles. Mixon’s current ADP is RB12, which would likely make him somebody’s RB1 in a 12-team league. Even at his peak, Mixon was a high-end to mid-RB2. That’s where he should be drafted, not as a fantasy lead dog.

3

Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels

The Commanders’ QB play has been brutal for years – over the last five seasons, they’ve started nine different quarterbacks. The team drafted second for a reason. They were bad, scoring 20 or fewer points in 11 games last season. The hope is that explosive rookie Jayden Daniels will make the difference.

The long-term ceiling for Daniels is extremely high. Comparisons to Lamar Jackson are founded and legitimate. However, fantasy football is a weekly game, and Daniels is going to have highs and lows as a rookie that don’t translate to being a consistent weekly starter.

Daniels’ current ADP is typically between QB12 and No. 14, which could make him somebody’s QB1 in 12-team leagues. His inclusion on this list isn’t an indictment of Daniels. He has the skill and the supporting cast to be effective, but the Commanders have one glaring weakness that can’t be fixed this season. Washington’s offensive line is ranked among the worst in the league by any measure. The Commanders don’t have an answer at left tackle and will have three new starters – none of them game-changers. Daniels may get a lot of rushing yards, but it will be because he’s running for his life.

2

Minnesota Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson

If not for a devastating knee injured suffered on Christmas Eve, Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson would be a top-five fantasy tight end candidate because of his reception volume since coming to the Vikings. In 25 games since being traded to Minnesota, Hockenson has caught 155 passes for 1,479 yards and eight touchdowns, securing four or more passes in 22 of them.

His torn ACL changed everything … but apparently not for everyone. Hockenson is currently has an ADP around TE16, which would make him a high-end TE2 in 12-team leagues – including those that are tight end-mandatory. It’s those leagues where his injury should be a bigger concern.

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Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell is talking enthusiastically about how Hockenson has attacked his rehab and is ahead of schedule. But the reality of it is that, due to severe swelling of the knee, Hockenson didn’t have surgery until Jan. 29. Nine months is the minimum recovery time recommended before returning to the field.

That would equate to October 29 for a return date. Minnesota invested in a record-setting deal to keep Hockenson long-term. He may not return until late October. That is too many guaranteed missed games to draft him at his ADP.

1

Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson

In the four contests rookie Anthony Richardson played for the Indianapolis Colts last year – or, more accurately, the two full outings and two half-games – he showed the electrifying skills that have Colts fans excited. He threw for 577 yards and three touchdowns to go with rushing 25 times for 136 yards and four TDs.

The red flag on fire was that, of the four games started, he only finished two. Fortunately for those who had him on their rosters last season, he was a QB2 and easily enough replaced when he was lost for the year in Week 4 … 2024 is a different story.

Richardson’s ADP is at QB5 – ahead of veterans like Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott along with 2023 sensation C.J. Stroud. None of them have the kind of concerns swirling around them like Richardson does – yet, he’s ranked higher.

Richardson could be the biggest risk in any fantasy draft. Even if he exceeds the lofty expectations made of him, those who select Richardson are almost certain to overdraft his backup because of injury concerns. Not only does Richardson require a significant investment, it mandates a second quarterback investment earlier than necessary.