Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles odds, picks and predictions

The Boston Red Sox (63-56) and Baltimore Orioles (71-50) open a 4-game set Thursday. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Orioles lead 5-1

The Red Sox are coming off a 2-1 series win against the visiting Texas Rangers. Boston lost 9-7 as a -129 favorite in the Wednesday finale as the Over (9.5) hit. The Red Sox are 3rd in the AL East, 7½ games back of the division-leading New York Yankees, and 2 games out of the final AL Wild Card spot.

The Orioles spilt a 2-game set with the Washington Nationals in Baltimore, wrapping up the series with a 4-1 win as -168 favorites Wednesday with the Under (9) cashing. The Orioles are a half-game behind the Yankees in the division and hold a 3½-game lead over the Minnesota Twins for the top Wild Card.

Red Sox at Orioles projected starters

RHP Nick Pivetta vs. RHP Zach Eflin

Pivetta (5-7, 4.44 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 in 95 1/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 7-2 victory at Rangers Aug. 4
• Skipped start over weekend due to arm fatigue
• 2024 road stats: 3-3, 3.76 ERA (52 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 in 10 starts
• Career vs. Orioles: 8-2, 3.18 ERA (68 IP, 24 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 11.0 K/9 in 12 starts, including 1-0 with 0.00 ERA (7 IP) in 1 start last year

Eflin (8-7, 3.83 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, MLB-leading 1.0 BB/9, and 7.2 K/9 in 129 1/3 IP with the Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays.

• Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 4-1 victory at Rays Friday
• 2024 home stats: 4-2, 2.52 ERA (50 IP, 14 ER), 1.04 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 in 8 starts
• 2024 vs. Red Sox: 1-0, 1 road start (May 13), 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 2 K in 5-3 win with Rays
• Career vs. Red Sox: 2-0, 6.00 ERA (24 IP, 16 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 in 5 starts

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Red Sox at Orioles odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:38 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Orioles -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-190) | Orioles -1.5 (+155)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Red Sox at Orioles picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 5, Red Sox 4

The ORIOLES (-135) have won 5 of the 6 meetings between these teams this season, and the Red Sox have lost 3 of Pivetta’s last 5 starts. Pivetta has allowed 13 runs in 14 innings over his last 3 outings and given up 6 or more hits in 3 of his last 5 starts.

Neither team has been winning at a high clip recently — Boston is 5-5 in its last 10 and Baltimore is 6-4 — but the Orioles should have the edge in this spot with how inconsistent Pivetta has been this season.

BET ORIOLES (-135).

Boston +1.5 (-190) likely hits Thursday, but there’s too much vig in this line to recommend a play.

PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.

Baltimore is the best Over bet in MLB this season, hitting Overs at a 68-44-9 (60.7%) clip. Boston is 16-7-4 (69.6%) to the Over in divisional games, and the Over has hit in 3 straight contests when Pivetta takes the mound.

BET OVER 8.5 (-110).

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