Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

The Philadelphia Phillies (74-52) and Atlanta Braves (67-59) meet for the finale of a 3-game series Thursday. First pitch from Truist Park is set for 7:08 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Atlanta leads 5-3

Philadelphia escaped with a 3-2 win over the Braves Wednesday while covering as a -113 road favorite. The Phillies scored 3 unanswered runs in the 6th and 8th innings to rally from a 2-0 deficit. PH Brandon Marsh hit the tie-breaking sacrifice fly in the 8th to score Philly’s final run.

The win ended a streak of back-to-back losses for Philadelphia while the loss ended a 3-game winning streak for the Braves. The loss also broke the Braves’ 3-game win streak over the Phillies.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

LHP Cristopher Sanchez vs. RHP Spencer Schwellenbach

Sanchez (9-8, 3.46 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 140 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 9 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 4 K in a 5-1 win over the Washington Nationals Saturday
• Career vs. Atlanta: 0-2, 4.73 ERA (13 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 17 H, 4 BB, 13 K in 3 appearances (2 starts)

Schwellenbach (4-6, 4.04 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 1.2 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 75 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 8 K in a 3-2 loss at the Los Angeles Angels Friday
• Career vs. Philadelphia: 1-0, 1.50 ERA (6 IP, 1 ER), 7 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 1 start

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Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:07 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Phillies -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Braves -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+155) | Braves +1.5 (-190)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Braves 3

LEAN PHILLIES (-110).

The Phillies enter as the slightly hotter team, being 5-2 in its last 7 overall while the Braves are only 3-3 in their last 6 overall. Atlanta has also dropped 6 of its last 7 home games.

This is a lean because Philadelphia is only 1-3 in its last 4 road games and because the Braves are 3-1 in their last 4 matchups vs. Philly.

PASS.

I like the Braves to cover here as +1.5 (-190) underdogs, but this line is set far too favorably to risk betting on. Bet on the spread and/or total instead.

BET UNDER 8 (+100).

The Under has hit in each of Atlanta’s last 3 games and is 7-3 in its last 10 overall. For Philadelphia, the Under has hit in back-to-back games and is 4-1 in its last 5 overall. The Under has also hit in each of the last 4 Philadelphia-Atlanta matchups overall.

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