The Jaguars' struggle against their own undertow will define Jacksonville's 2024

2023 did not go as planned for the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The reigning AFC South champions were a team on the rise. They’d made it to the playoffs for the first time since Blake Bortles was a The Good Place punchline. They made a historic rally from a 27-0 deficit to ruin the Los Angeles Chargers’ Super Bowl hopes. They gave the Kansas City Chiefs a legitimate scare in an eventual 27-20 Divisional Round loss.

Things were supposed to be better the following fall. Trevor Lawrence, the former prized top overall draft pick, recorded a 15:2 touchdown:interception ratio over the final nine games of the season as Jacksonville rallied from 2-6 to 9-8. His ascension was supposed to get rocket boosters with the return of Calvin Ridley from a league mandated year-long gambling suspension. Factor in the rising play of 2022 first round draft picks Travon Walker and Devin Lloyd, and the Jaguars were a legitimate title contender.

That was not what happened. Lawrence struggled with injury and regressed. The defense that had punched above its weight class in 2022 wound up rocked by haymakers. Jacksonville went from 6-2 headed into its bye week to 9-8 and a spot outside the playoffs.

Let’s talk about what went wrong, and if there’s a quick fix for 2024.

Trevor Lawrence… let’s talk about it, guy

The landing spot for any Jaguars criticism lands at the feet of the guy who just signed a $275 million contract extension with $200 million in guarantees. Lawrence looked the part of a man worth more than $50 million annually to finish 2022.

From Week 9 onward, he ended the regular season with a 105.4 passer rating on the strength of 15 touchdown passes against only two interceptions. Jacksonville went 7-2 to upend the Tennessee Titans for the AFC South title and Lawrence further elevated his legend by virtue of his Wild Card comeback. He was, over the back half of 2022, a top five quarterback.

He elevated Christian Kirk to a place worthy of his contract status. Kirk’s yards per route run (YPRR) rose from 2.0 (30th among NFL wideouts) to 2.14 (22nd) in his first season in Jacksonville. Evan Engram went from the NFL’s least deserving Pro Bowler to a bonafide one (albeit in 2023) after trading in the New York Giants’ cabinet of curiosities quarterback room for one with Lawrence in the middle. Zay Jones best season as a pro? That came alongside Lawrence in 2022.

And then 2023 hit. Calvin Ridley entered as the WR1 capable of restoring order to the lineup. And Lawrence, fighting through injury for a chunk of the season, played appreciably worse for a team that still won nine games, but ceded the AFC South to the Houston Texans. His sack rate went up, he was prone to scrambling out of bad situations rather than standing in the pocket through static and while his average target distance rose so did his interceptions — from eight in 2022 to 14 last fall. He wasn’t bad; he was merely slightly above average.

That didn’t stop the Jaguars from handing him a massive contract extension — a necessity, given the team’s history at the position and Lawrence’s still untapped potential. But it’s reasonable to be wary of the young quarterback’s leveling up even if he’s full strength in 2024. Ridley was arguably misused in 2023, making some veiled references to his route tree after signing with the Tennessee Titans this spring. In his place steps Brian Thomas Jr., who is big (6-foot-3), fast as hell (4.33-second 40 time) and a deep ball savant capable of tracking and adjusting to throws in a way that leads to big gains.

Ideally, he’d shunt Kirk down to WR2 status and new arrival Gabe Davis could be an occasionally devastative presence as the third man up. But there’s no guarantee that happens, especially as a rookie, and this group could be a cadre of Williams H. Macy without a leading actor.

Evan Engram is coming off a career best year but was used heavily as a short range safety valve rather than a seam-splitting downfield threat; his average catch came four yards downfield. Travis Etienne is talented, but he backslid as a runner and receiver last season — his -77 rushing yards over expected (RYOE) were eighth-worst in the league. Tank Bigsby and D’Ernest Johnson each averaged 2.6 yards per carry last season which is, according to most football analysts, very bad.

If any of these guys step up — if Thomas can be an impact wideout from day one, if Etienne and company can restore the rushing offense to a high efficiency unit, if Engram can keep producing at a Pro Bowl level (actual Pro Bowl, not his nonsense 2020 invite) then Lawrence can rebound to stake his claim as a franchise quarterback. If they can’t, 2024’s success will depend on a growing defense.

The Jaguars’ defense probably won’t approach 2016-2018 levels, but it can certainly be better

From 2016 to 2018, here’s how the Jags ranked in yards allowed: sixth, second, fifth. In the five seasons since, they’ve failed to finish higher than 20th.

There have been missteps along the way. Jacksonville drafted CJ Henderson and K’Lavon Chaisson in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft; that pair combined to start 21 total games for the Jaguars.

The 2021 Jags passed on an opportunity to draft cornerback Greg Newsome II in the first round and opted to take Tyson Campbell in the second. Newsome was a key piece of one of the league’s top defenses and Campbell, after a promising 2022, struggled with injury in 2023 and allowed a 128.5 passer rating in coverage. 2022’s top overall pick Travon Walker has developed into a double-digit sack threat, but it’s fair to wonder if the team would have been better off with Aidan Hutchinson, who went second overall, instead.

This hasn’t prevented Jacksonville from cultivating a core of useful players. Walker and Josh Hines-Allen combined for 27.5 sacks last season — no teammate combination in the league had more. Campbell allowed a 78.0 passer rating in his second season in the league and could be even better now that his hamstring is back to full strength. Foyesade Oluokun is a tackling machine and Devin Lloyd is blossoming into a versatile off-ball presence next to him. The Andre Cisco-Antonio Johnson pairing at safety provides a ton of potential.

That said, this unit still has work left to be done. Secondary depth is an issue, particularly after salary concerns chased 2023’s top coverage man Darious Williams back to the Los Angeles Rams. Ronald Darby and Darnell Savage bring veteran experience to the backfield, but Darby is on the wrong side of 30 (which was, in theory, part of Williams’ problem) and Savage has been a bit of a mess in coverage. Third round pick Jarrian Jones would make life easier for Doug Pederson if he can immediately contribute.

Signing Arik Armstead and drafting Maason Smith is supposed to shore up the interior of a defensive line that was subpar against the run. That’s not a bad approach, obviously, but it highlights how quickly the Jaguars will have to mesh with their new additions.

***

Even with the Houston Texans surging, the Jaguars have the tools to remain in the AFC South title picture. That hinges on several bounce-back performances — from Lawrence, Campbell, Etienne and more. It also depends on some possible stars stepping into their potential to raise the quality on both sides of the ball.

That’s a lot that has to go right and a franchise for which, historically, almost everything tends to go wrong. It’s easier to doubt Jacksonville than to have faith in it, but the talent of a playoff team remains. The question now is whether Pederson can bring it together quickly enough to make an impact in 2024.