New York Mets at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

The New York Mets (66-61) and San Diego Padres (72-56) play the opener of a 4-game set at PETCO Park Thursday at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 3-0

The Mets took 2 of 3 from the Baltimore Orioles with a 4-3 victory Wednesday. OF Jesse Winker hit a pinch-hit, walkoff homer in the 9th. They sit 1 1/2 games out of the final Wild Card spot. The Mets are 5-3 over their last 8 games.

The Padres dropped the finale against the Minnesota Twins Wednesday 11-4. They won the previous 2 games and are 15-5 over the last 20 games. OF Jackson Merrill has turned it up a notch, hitting .311 with 8 extra-base hits and 11 RBIs over his last 12 games.

Mets at Padres projected starters

RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Dylan Cease

Severino (8-6, 3.91 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 142 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 9 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K Saturday against Miami Marlins
• 1 career start vs. Padres: No-decision, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 3 BB, 5 K

Cease (12-9, 3.46 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 148 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 5 BB, 5 K Saturday at Colorado Rockies
• 2 career starts vs. Mets: 0-2, 9.28 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 11 K in 10 2/3 IP

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Mets at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:56 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Mets +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Padres -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-175) | Padres -1.5 (+145)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -125 | U: +105)

Mets at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 5, Padres 3

I like the Mets here as Severino is coming off a complete-game shutout with 8 K’s. Cease has been erratic with 2+ walks in 5 of his last 7 starts. He also got shelled for 7 ER in 3 2/3 IP against the Mets earlier this year.

Take the METS +135.

I like LUIS SEVERINO OVER 3.5 K’S (-149) here. The Padres are the toughest team to whiff in baseball, but Sevvy has 4+ K’s in 18 of 24 starts this season. Take advantage of this overcorrection.

It’s slated to be a 71-degree evening with a 9-mph wind blowing left-to-right. These teams are 1-1-1 O/U against one another and 2-7-1 O/U in the last 10 matchups. Both teams are swinging the bats well, though. Both teams 6-4 O/U in their last 10, and I’m taking the OVER 7 (-125).

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