Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals odds, picks and predictions

The Kansas City Royals (72-56) welcome the Philadelphia Phillies (74-54) to Kauffman Stadium Saturday for the 2nd game of their 3-game series. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Royals lead 1-0

The Phillies lost the series-opening game 7-4 to the Royals Friday, closing as a +117 underdog. They have lost 2 straight and 4 of their last 5, dropping 2 of 3 to the Atlanta Braves in the series prior. Philadelphia sits atop the NL East yet has struggled on the road, having a 32-31 away record. It is 64-64 against the spread (ATS).

The Royals have been on fire as of late, winning 7 of their last 9 games which included a 3-game road sweep of the Cincinnati Reds from Aug. 16-18. Kansas City beat the Los Angeles Angels in 2 of 3 in the series prior to this one. The Royals are 41-26 at home this season and 72-56 ATS.

Phillies at Royals projected starters

LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Brady Singer

Suarez (10-5, 2.87 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 119 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 7-2 road loss to the Minnesota Twins July 22
• 2024 away stats: 5-4, 2.87 ERA (62 2/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 in 10 starts
• Will face Royals for the first time in his career

Singer (9-8, 3.18 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 through 141 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 8-1 road win over the Cincinnati Reds Sunday
• 2024 home stats: 6-4, 2.50 ERA (79 1/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 in 13 starts
• Will face Phillies for the first time in his career

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Phillies at Royals odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Phillies -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Royals +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+122) | Royals +1.5 (-146)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Phillies at Royals picks and predictions

Prediction

Royals 5, Phillies 3

BET ROYALS (+102).

The Royals have been unstoppable as of late, and they have won 4 of the last 6 in which Singer has started. Kansas City has allowed 1 or fewer in 5 of its last 8 games. In Singer’s last start, the Royals gave up just 1 run through the 9 innings. Kansas City is 5-2 in its last 7 at home as well.

The Phillies have struggled as of late, and their offense has been unable to get anything going. Philadelphia has scored 10 runs in its last 4 games. It has been outscored 14-21 in its last 5. It is 1-3 in its last 4 road games.

Take ROYALS (+102).

PASS.

There’s just no good value here. The Phillies are too risky as a run-line favorite while the Royals are too expensive as a run-line underdog. Avoid this play.

BET UNDER 9.5 (-108).

The Phillies have gone Under in 5 of their last 7 games, scoring 4 or fewer in 6 of those 7. They have allowed 3 or fewer in 5 of those as well, so it has been their offense, not defense, that has been sluggish as of late.

The Royals are 3-4-1 O/U in their last 8 games and are 59-66-3 O/U this season. Kansas City has scored 5 or fewer in 3 of its last 4 games and allowed 4 or fewer in 7 of its last 8.

Considering those trends, back UNDER 9 (-102).

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