Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

The Houston Astros (70-60) and Philadelphia Phillies (76-54) begin a 3-game series Monday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is set for 6:40 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Phillies won 2 of 3 in 2023

The Astros split a 4-game series with the Orioles in Baltimore over the weekend to begin their 7-game road trip. Houston won 6-3 on Sunday behind home runs from 3B Alex Bregman and C Yanier Diaz. The Astros lead the AL West by 4 1/2 games over the Seattle Mariners.

Philadelphia heads home after going 3-3 on their 6-game road trip. They took 2 of 3 from the Royals in Kansas City, outscoring them 26-12. The Phillies are 42-23 are home and currently hold a 6-game lead over the Atlanta Braves in the NL East.

Astros at Phillies projected starters

RHP Ronel Blanco vs. RHP Zack Wheeler

Blanco (9-6, 3.14 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 137 2/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 3 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 6 K in 6-5 home win against the Boston Red Sox Tuesday
• 2024 away splits: 4-4, 3.51 ERA (74 1/3 IP, 29 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 in 13 starts
• Has never faced the Phillies

Wheeler (12-6, 2.73 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 154 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 3-1 loss at the Atlanta Braves Tuesday
• 2024 home splits: 8-3, 2.40 ERA (82 1/3 IP, 27 R (22 ER), 0.92 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 in 13 starts
• Only start vs Astros: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 6-1 home victory on April 29, 2023

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Astros at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:59 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Astros +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Phillies -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Astros +1.5 (-160) | Phillies -1.5 (+135)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Astros at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Astros 2

PASS.

I’ve got the Phillies (-165) taking this series opener, but I’ll save my bet for the run line with the better odds.

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BET PHILLIES -1.5 (+135).

The Phillies are 42-23 at Citizens Bank Park and have won 4 of their last 5 games at home. Wheeler is 6-1 in his last 8 starts at home. It also doesn’t hurt that the Phillies are the 2nd-highest scoring team in MLB (5.31 runs per game).

After a fantastic start to the season, Blanco has struggled lately, going 0-3 in his last 7 starts. His ERA has progressively gotten worst each month of the season.

BET UNDER 8 (-115).

These 2 teams love playing to the Under, especially lately. They are 8-1-1 against the Under in their last 10 meetings. Both teams are 5-5 in their last 10 games against the Over.

While Blanco is 2-2 against the Under in his last 4 starts, Wheeler is 4-2 against the Under in his last 6 starts.

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