Atlanta Braves at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

The Atlanta Braves (72-60) and Minnesota Twins (72-60) wrap up a 3-game set at Target Field Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 2-0

After taking the Monday opener 10-6 as +107 underdogs, the Braves won 8-6 in 10 innings as -111 favorites Tuesday as the Over (8.5) hit. 1B Matt Olson grounded into a fielder’s choice to drive in the go-ahead run in the 10th, part of a 4-run inning for Atlanta.

Twins RP Jhoan Durán allowed 4 runs (3 earned) on 4 hits with 1 K. He retired just 1 of the 5 batters he faced before getting pulled in the 10th. Minnesota has lost 3 straight games and 7 of its last 9.

The Braves and Twins hold the final Wild Card spot in their respective leagues.

Braves at Twins projected starters

LHP Chris Sale vs. RHP David Festa

Sale (14-3, 2.62 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.02 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and MLB-leading 11.6 K/9 in 147 2/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 2 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 3-2 home victory in 10 innings vs. Washington Nationals Friday
• 2024 road stats: 6-3, 2.49 ERA (79 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 12.4 K/9 in 13 starts
• Career vs. Twins: 11-6, 3.81 ERA (144 IP, 61 ER), 1.08 WHIP, 11.7 K/9 in 30 appearances (22 starts), including 0-0 with 1.50 ERA (6 IP, 1 ER) in 1 start last year

Festa (2-3, 5.20 ERA) makes his 8th start and 9th appearance. The rookie has a 1.32 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 in 36 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 6-1 home defeat vs. St. Louis Cardinals Friday
• 2024 home stats: 0-2, 6.61 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.59 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 in 4 appearances (3 starts)
• Has never faced Braves

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Braves at Twins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:06 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Braves -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Twins +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+105) | Twins +1.5 (-130)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Braves at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 4, Twins 3

The Braves (-155) are rightfully favored in this spot, but laying $155 to win $100 on Atlanta seems like an overreaction to the pitching mismatch.

PASS. Bet the run line and/or total instead.

It’s unlikely that Minnesota loses 3 straight games at home by multiple runs. Only 1 of Sale’s last 4 starts has resulted in a multi-run win for Atlanta, and Festa has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 5 of his last 6 outings.

BET TWINS +1.5 (-130).

It’s hard to look toward the Over with Sale taking the mound for Atlanta. He has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 13 straight outings, while Festa has been improving throughout the season, posting a 3.18 ERA (17 IP, 6 ER) in 4 August starts.

BET UNDER 7.5 (-105).

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