San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and predictions

The San Diego Padres (76-59) and St. Louis Cardinals (66-67) meet for the finale of a 4-game series Thursday. First pitch from Busch Stadium is set for 2:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Cardinals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 3-3

St. Louis escaped with a 4-3 win over San Diego Wednesday as a +105 home underdog. 3B Nolan Arenado hit a walk-off single in the bottom of the 9th inning, driving in SS Masyn Winn.

The loss marked the end of a 3-game win streak for the Padres and snapped a 2-game skid for the Cardinals.

Padres at Cardinals projected starters

RHP Michael King vs. RHP Sonny Gray

King (11-7, 3.14 ERA) makes his 26th start and 27th appearance. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 through 146 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 7-1 home defeat vs. New York Mets Saturday
• Career vs. St. Louis: 1-0, 0.00 ERA (3 1/3 IP, 0 ER), 1 H, 0 BB, 2 K in 1 relief appearance of 6-2 road victory July 1, 2023, with New York Yankees

Gray (11-9, 4.07 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 through 141 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 6-0 defeat at Minnesota Twins Saturday
• Career vs. San Diego: 2-0, 1.64 ERA (11 IP, 2 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 12.3 K/9 in 2 starts — last outing in 2022

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Padres at Cardinals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Padres -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Cardinals -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+150) | Cardinals +1.5 (-185)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Padres at Cardinals picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 3, Cardinals 2

BET PADRES (-115).

San Diego is 3-1 in its last 4 games and 6-4 in its last 10, while the Cardinals are only 3-4 in their last 7 at home and 5-5 in their last 10 overall.

The Padres are also 3-1 in the last 4 meetings between these teams.

PASS.

I like the Cardinals to cover here as +1.5 (-185) underdogs, but the line is set too heavily in their favor to risk betting on. Bet on the moneyline and/or O/U instead.

LEAN UNDER 8 (-115).

For St. Louis, the Under is 7-3 in its last 10 games overall and 4-3 in its last 7 at home. The Under has also gone 5-3-1 in the last 9 meetings.

This is a lean because the Over is 7-3 in San Diego’s last 10 games.

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