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Best NFL underdog picks and predictions for Week 1
By Jess Root,
6 hours ago
The 2024 NFL season begins with the 2-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs hosting QB Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens Thursday night. Week 1 always brings surprises. It is one of the harder weeks to predict how things will go, as every team has had weeks to prepare for the game.
So which games will bring upsets? There are some every week. Below, we analyze BetMGM SportsbookNFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Week 1 underdog bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.
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Arizona’s offense, with a healthy QB Kyler Murray, was a good offense in the 2nd half of last season and they added No. 4 overall pick WR Marvin Harrison Jr. to bolster a passing attack and complement what was the No. 4 rushing attack in 2023.
While Arizona’s defense is not expected to be good, turnovers will keep the game close, allowing Murray to keep up. Bills QB Josh Allen has thrown 5 INTs in his last 2 season openers.
The Cardinals, despite winning only 4 games last season, were one of the most competitive teams, going 9-8 ATS. I don’t expect an upset win, but Arizona should keep it within less than a TD for the cover.
Texans at COLTS (+130) – 1 p.m. (CBS)
The Texans, who beat out the Colts in the final week of the season last year to win the division and make the postseason, could be even better with the addition of WR Stefon Diggs and DE Danielle Hunter.
But the Colts have a healthy QB Anthony Richardson and RB Jonathan Taylor.
In last year’s Week 2 matchup in Houston, Richardson rushed for 2 TDs before getting hurt and the Colts blew the Texans out 31-20. The Texans beat the Colts 23-19 in Indy in Week 18.
Both teams will battle for the AFC South again. But I like to give extra juice to the home team in their home opener. Indy will look to avenge that home loss to end their season.
Go with the plus odds on the home team.
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Broncos +6 (-110) at Seahawks – 4:05 p.m. (CBS)
The Seahawks have a new offense, new defense and new head coach.
The Broncos have a rookie starting QB in Bo Nix.
While Seattle HC Mike Macdonaldled a top defense in the league last year in Baltimore, it will take time to get Seattle’s unit to that level.
Meanwhile, it will be Denver’s 2nd season in DC Vance Joseph’ssystem.
Neither team is expected to be competitive this year for the postseason, so the 6-point spread seems like a lot with 2 basically unknown teams.
Denver averaged 33 points per game in the preseason, not that is a great predictor of how they will play offensively in the regular season, but this game is probably going to be close.
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