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Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers odds, picks and predictions
By Drew Phelps,
1 day ago
The Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers open their seasons Sunday. Kickoff from Raymond James Stadium is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX). Below, we look at Commanders vs. Buccaneers odds from BetMGM Sportsbook before making our expert NFL picks and predictions later in the week.
The Commanders made a splash by selecting LSU QB Jayden Daniels 2nd overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. Daniels shined in the preseason, completing 12 of 15 passes with no turnovers. He’ll rely on WR Terry McLaurin, who’s topped 1,000 receiving yards in every season except his rookie year. The team also added veteran TE Zach Ertz, though his impact at 33 is uncertain. RBs Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler will split carries in the backfield. On defense, DT Jonathan Allen anchors the line, and new addition LB Bobby Wagner brings veteran leadership to the unit.
The Buccaneers know that in a weak NFC South, a solid performance could secure a playoff spot. QB Baker Mayfield thrived in his first season in Tampa, setting career highs in completions, yards, and touchdowns. He’ll lean on WR Mike Evans, who’s topped 1,000 yards every year since 2014, and WR Chris Godwin, who’s done so in 4 of the last 5 seasons. On defense, LB Lavonte David and CB Antoine Winfield Jr. lead the way, while LB Yaya Diaby (7.5 sacks in 2023) anchors the pass rush.
Moneyline (ML): Commanders +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Buccaneers -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Commanders +3.5 (-115) | Buccaneers -3.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 42.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Commanders at Buccaneers key injuries
Commanders
QB Marcus Mariota (chest) out
DT Jer’Zhan Newton (foot) doubtful
Buccaneers
DE Logan Hall (foot) out
DT Calijah Kancey (calf) questionable
WR Trey Palmer (concussion) questionable
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Commanders at Buccaneers picks and predictions
Prediction
Buccaneers 24, Commanders 21
PASS.
I don’t hate taking the Commanders on the moneyline, but it’s not my official recommendation. I’d rather get those points on the spread.
BET COMMANDERS +3.5 (-115).
The Buccaneers exceeded expectations last season, but they were inconsistent, finishing 9-8.
Meanwhile, Washington struggled at 4-13, but a lot has changed. Daniels brings star potential, and with weapons like McLaurin, Ekeler, and Ertz, this offense could surprise. New coach Dan Quinn should improve the defense, especially with veterans like Wagner joining the mix.
Tampa Bay’s defense is solid, but its offense has question marks, making it likely that Washington keeps this game within a field goal or even pulls off an upset.
BET OVER 42.5 (-115).
Despite trends pointing towards lower-scoring games, taking the Over seems like a strong play.
Washington has gone Over in 7 of its last 10 games, and its offense is primed to improve with Daniels at QB and new weapons like Ekeler. The Commanders have also hit the Over in their last 4 September road games.
While Tampa Bay has had low-scoring games recently, its defense may struggle against an upgraded Washington offense, and Mayfield’s passing attack could add to the point total. Overall, this game has the potential to exceed expectations and push past 42.5 points.
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