Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and predictions

The Washington Nationals (47-56) take on the St. Louis Cardinals (53-49) Friday in the opener of a 3-game set at Busch Stadium at 8:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Cardinals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Cardinals lead 3-1

The Nats were swept by the San Diego Padres in a 3-game series that ended with RHP Dylan Cease no-hitting them in a 3-0 setback Thursday. This is on the heels of the Nats sweeping a 3-game series over the Cincinnati Reds. The one to watch is OF Jesse Winker. He is hitting .352 with 11 homers and 34 RBIs in 241 career at-bats against the Cardinals. That improves to .379-7-17 in 95 ABs at Busch.

The Cardinals followed up a dramatic 2-1 win over stud RHP Paul Skenes with a half-hearted 5-0 loss Wednesday. They outhit the Pittsburgh Pirates, drew 9 walks and could not score a run, which is hard to fathom. The Cards are dreadful against lefties at .223/.288/.335 BA/OBP/SLG.

Nationals at Cardinals projected starters

LHP MacKenzie Gore vs. RHP Sonny Gray

Gore (6-8, 4.20 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 through 100 2/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 2 IP, 3 ER, 2 H, 4 BB, 2 K in 5-4 home win Saturday against Cincinnati Reds
• 2 career starts vs. Cardinals: 0-1, 9.64 ERA, 2.36 WHIP, 7 BB, 13 K in 9 1/3 IP
• July 6 vs. St. Louis: No-decision, 3 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 5 BB, 5 K in 14-6 home win

Gray (10-6, 3.54 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 through 106 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 7 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 10 K in 9-5 victory Saturday at Atlanta Braves
• Last start vs. Nationals: No-decision, 5 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 7-6 road win in 11 innings July 5
• Last 5 starts vs. Nats: 2-1, 4.68 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 25 K in 25 IP

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Nationals at Cardinals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:01 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Nationals +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Cardinals -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-140) | Cardinals -1.5 (+115)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Nationals at Cardinals picks and predictions

Prediction

Cardinals 5, Nationals 3

The Cards are bad against lefties, but they have seen Gore well. They had an off-day Thursday to recharge, and there’s no reason they should drop this game. They also dropped out of the 3rd Wild Card spot, and things have become urgent.

That said, -175 is too expensive for how inconsistent they are. Instead, SGP CARDINALS ML AND SONNY GRAY OVER 5.5 K’S (+145). Gray fanned 6 Nats July 5 and has 6+ K’s in 6 of 7 GS.

The Cardinals play entirely too many 1-run games to trust them on the RL. They are 19-14 in 1-run affairs. PASS, and devote your attention elsewhere.

Remember that dominance Winker has displayed against St. Louis? Take JESSE WINKER OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+125). He’s 3-for-6 lifetime against Gray.

It’s slated to be a humid, 82-degree evening with a light breeze blowing left-to-right. The Nats are 5-5 O/U, and the Cards are 4-6 O/U in their last 10. The Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings, though.

Gore has pitched against St. Louis twice and gave up 5 ER in each start. I look for the OVER 7.5 (-115) to cash.

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