The battle for a coveted Wisconsin Senate seat is set to kick into high gear this week when Tuesday’s primaries solidify the race between Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and Republican Eric Hovde .
The battleground state is rated by nonpartisan election forecasters as “lean Democratic” for the Senate but a “toss-up” for the presidential election, putting the Badger State squarely in the spotlight for both parties.
Vice President Kamala Harris has breathed new life into the race for Baldwin, who previously dodged several Wisconsin appearances made by President Joe Biden prior to him exiting the 2024 election. Baldwin has stumped with Harris at least twice in the state since the vice president’s meteoric rise to the top of the Democratic ticket.
“Very, very exciting,” Baldwin recently told the Washington Examiner after attending a rally with Harris. “I feel like it’s a new beginning to the campaign.”
Should the seat flip red, Republicans are all but guaranteed to retake the Senate. Democrats must retain it to have a shot at keeping the majority.
“It was tough when the vibe around the top of the ticket wasn't great,” Baldwin campaign spokesman Andrew Mamo told the Washington Examiner. “But the vibe around the top of the ticket right now is fantastic, and we are seeing more volunteers, more grassroots contributions, more people willing to knock on doors.”
Baldwin, running for a third term and unopposed in Tuesday’s primary, has managed to maintain steady leads in the polls over Hovde that are mostly outside the margins of error against the wealthy businessman who has so far loaned his campaign $13 million.
A real estate developer and banker, Hovde is backed by former President Donald Trump and the campaign arm of Senate Republicans. He faces nominal competition from two other GOP primary opponents: Charles Barman and Rejani Raveendran.
The Hovde campaign views Harris and her choice of Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) as her running mate to bring a Midwestern boost as a liberal liability.
“She voted for every single word of the Biden-Harris economic agenda that's put us onto the brink of a recession,” a source close to Hovde said of Baldwin. “But what's different now, too, is you add to that the far-left agendas of not only the vice president but also her running mate.”
Similar to other vulnerable Senate Democrats in battleground states across the country, Baldwin sees access to abortion and women’s reproductive health as winning matters to campaign on heavily in the coming months. Mamo described abortion as a “salient” topic the Baldwin campaign plans to spend significantly on with ads.
For Hovde, it’s all about the economy and affordability. It’s a 2024 national playbook the GOP is banking on in the face of inflation and high interest rates.
The Republican’s campaign is also working to boost his name recognition against Baldwin, who was first elected to Congress in 1998. Those close to Hovde, an “outsider” who’s still “introducing himself to new voters,” concede there’s ground to be gained in the polls and see a successful path forward as branding Baldwin as the “status quo administration.”
For their part, Democrats agree Hovde is an outsider — but not in the sense Hovde agrees with.
Hovde was born and raised in Wisconsin, has a Madison-based real estate company, and ran an unsuccessful Senate bid in 2012. But Democrats say he’s a carpetbagger from California because of a $7 million Laguna Beach home and his CEO status at a California-based bank.
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He’s also made some remarks on the trail in this cycle and from 2012, such as suggesting those in nursing homes may be too elderly to vote , overweight people should pay more for healthcare , or questioning the future of children raised by single mothers , that Democrats have seized upon.
“Hovde is a California, out-of-touch rich guy who, frankly, has, said a bunch of jerky and disrespectful things about the people of Wisconsin,” Mamo said.
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