The ad wars are heating up as the race for the White House grows tighter.
Former President Trump’s campaign is going all in on border security as it seeks to knock the shine off Vice President Harris.
The Trump campaign is putting $12 million behind new ads running in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin casting Harris as a “failed, weak, dangerous liberal.”
The ad hits Harris for failing to visit the Southern border during her time in the White House.
“Under Harris, over 10 million illegally here
. A quarter of a million Americans dead from fentanyl. Brutal migrant crimes. And ISIS is now here.”
The ad comes as Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), has planned a visit to the border in Cochise, Ariz.
Vance and Republicans will highlight remarks Harris made during her 2020 primary race, where she said she would decriminalize border crossings and consider whether Immigration and Customs Enforcement should be scrapped.
Republicans have effectively had the airwaves to themselves in the race against Harris, but that’s about to change:
The Harris campaign has booked a $50 million ad buy ahead of the Democratic National Convention.
The 60-second ad is called “Fearless,” and it will lean on Harris’s record as a prosecutor and attorney general, as well as her time in the White House.
The ad wars come as new polls show Harris gaining on Trump:
The latest Harvard CAPS/Harris national poll puts Trump ahead of Harris by just 3 points, down from the 7-point lead he held over Biden in June.
Nate Silver’s new election model is online, and it gives Trump a 61 percent chance of victory. Harris is the favorite to win the national popular vote, but she’s the underdog in the Electoral College.
That could change if Harris gets more polling like this:
A new Susquehanna Polling survey finds Harris leading Trump in Pennsylvania by 4 points. Trump led Biden by 4.6 points in Pennsylvania before he dropped out, according to the Decision Desk HQ average.
While political watchers wait for further polls to see how Harris stacks up in the “Blue Wall” states compared to Biden, the Harris campaign believes the more racially diverse Sun Belt states are back in play.
Black voters make up 12 percent of the national electorate, but they make up 34 percent in Georgia.
Harris told reporters Tuesday that she hasn’t selected her running mate yet, but Reuters reports that she’s expected to travel with her vice presidential candidate as early as next week.
Perspectives:
The Hill: Why Harris needs a ‘competent’ white man for VP to win.
The Hill: Time for Trump to take a mulligan on VP pick.
Secret Service leader ‘ashamed’ about assassination attempt; reveals new details
Acting Secret Service Director Ronald Rowe and FBI Deputy Director Paul Abbate revealed new details about the security failures that led to the assassination attempt on former President Trump.
They struck a note of contrition in testimony before Congress, while facing the wrath of angry lawmakers who demanded people be fired.
Rowe said he visited the rally site in Butler, Pa., and climbed the rooftop where Thomas Matthew Crooks fired on Trump.
“I laid in a prone position to evaluate his line of sight. What I saw made me ashamed. As a career law enforcement officer and a 25 year veteran with the Secret Service, I cannot defend why that roof was not better secured to prevent similar lapses from occurring in the future.”
Abbate laid out a precise timeline of events:
4:26 p.m.: Local law enforcement flagged Crooks, who was carrying a range finder.
5:14 p.m.: The shooter was identified as a suspicious person.
5:32 p.m.: A local SWAT operator captured a photo of the shooter.
5:46 p.m.: Secret Service command post notified that Crooks was a suspicious person.
6:02 to 6:08 p.m.: Law enforcement lost sight of Crooks.
6:06 p.m.: The shooter climbed the rooftop.
6:08 p.m.: The shooter was spotted on the roof by local law enforcement.
6:11 p.m.: Trump was hit by a bullet.
Among the other details that came from the hearing:
The Secret Service is investigating why the shooter was able to fly a drone over the property without being questioned by police. Rowe said that question has “cost me a lot of sleep.”
There was a 30-second lapse between when local police radioed that the shooter had a gun and when he opened fire. Rowe said the Secret Service did not receive the radio warning about the shooter and that his agents were not alerted that a potential shooting was unfolding.
The Wall Street Journal reports that the gunman “began making dozens of gun-related purchases and stocking up on bomb-making materials more than a year ago.”
Vance’s past remarks haunt him on the campaign trail
Sen. JD Vance’s (R-Ohio) past culture war remarks continue to haunt him on the campaign trail.
Vance’s past interviews with conservative media personalities, such as Tucker Carlson, are proving to be a goldmine of opposition research for Democrats.
CNN reports that Vance said in 2020 that Democratic leaders without children are “more sociopathic” and “less mentally stable.” Vance has been under fire for calling Democrats “childless cat ladies.”
Mother Jones uncovered a video from 2017, when Vance was a fierce Trump critic. At the time, Vance said, “Some people who voted for Trump were racists, and they voted for him for racist reasons.”
Vance’s current remarks are also getting attention.
The Washington Post obtained a leaked recording from a weekend fundraiser in Minnesota, in which Vance can be heard discussing the surprise candidate swap:
“All of us were hit with a little bit of a political sucker punch. The bad news is that Kamala Harris does not have the same baggage as Joe Biden, because whatever we might have to say, Kamala is a lot younger. And Kamala Harris is obviously not struggling in the same ways that Joe Biden did.”
Vance’s rocky rollout has GOP senators divided over whether Trump should dump him and pick someone new, according to The Hill’s Alexander Bolton.
Vance will hold a rally in Reno, Nev., on Tuesday evening.
Elsewhere:
The Trump campaign looking to separate itself from Project 2025 as Democrats have made the conservative Heritage Foundation’s governing document a top issue in the campaign.
The director of Project 2025 is stepping down. The Trump campaign released a statement saying it “should not be associated with the campaign or the President in any way,” although many of Trump’s former aides and advisers helped put it together.
“Reports of Project 2025’s demise would be greatly welcomed and should serve as notice to anyone or any group trying to misrepresent their influence with President Trump and his campaign— it will not end well for you.” – Trump campaign advisers Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita.
It’s Election Day in Arizona, a pivotal Sun Belt swing state that will factor heavily into the race for White House and control of Congress.
Republican Kari Lake and Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) headline the main event:
Lake and Gallego are expected to win the nominations for their respective parties with ease, setting up a showdown for retiring Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (I) seat in the fall.
Lake lost her statewide race for governor in 2022. She has unsuccessfully challenged the outcome in the courts, claiming the election was stolen from her.
Vice President Harris could shake up the Senate race over the next few days by picking Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) as her running mate.
Other races to watch:
Blake Masters and Abe Hamadeh are the top names running in a crowded field of Republicans vying to replace Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Ariz.). The candidates have a lot in common: Trump has endorsed both men, and both have previously lost statewide elections; Masters lost a Senate race in 2022, and Hamadeh lost an attorney general race the same year.
Maricopa County recorder Stephen Richer (R), who validated the election results from the 2020 and 2022 elections, will face primary challenges from hardline conservatives. Richer has filed a defamation suit against Lake, who attacked him for certifying the election results.
Three Democrats are running to replace Gallego in the deep blue 3rd Congressional District: Former state Sen. Raquel Terán, former Phoenix Vice Mayor Yassamin Ansari and pediatrician Duane Wooten. Sens. Kelly, Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), as well as Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.), have backed Terán, while former Obama deputy national security adviser Ben Rhodes and Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) have backed Ansari.
The Hill’s Julia Caroline Vakil has everything you need to know about tonight’s elections here.
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