Summer of Soccer best bets: USWNT meets Brazil for the gold

When the United States Women's National Team played Japan in the quarterfinals of this Olympic tournament, we wrote at length about how often the two teams play each other. (Seven times in the knockout rounds of a major tournament alone, to be exact.)

The USWNT and Japan are soccer's most familiar foes: there's no getting around it. But there's another matchup renowned for its frequency, one that's decided two of the seven Olympic gold medals in women's soccer.

That's the USWNT vs. Brazil, and it's the fascinating match we'll be lucky enough to witness in the gold medal game of the 2024 Olympic tournament.

For all their familiarity, you'd be hard-pressed to find two teams more different than the USWNT and Brazil. The USWNT is young and hungry, reborn under a new coach and striving to reach the heights of its forbears; Brazil is mature and experienced, battling under a well-known coach to finally deliver a gold medal to one of the greatest players to ever contend for one.

That player would be Marta, one of the few women's soccer stars known the world over. At 38 years old, she's almost certainly competing in her final Olympics, and she'd love nothing more than to cap off her career with the prize that's evaded her from the start. She's the second-highest goalscorer in Olympic soccer history — she'll tie for first if she gets one goal in the final — and there is no one in the game more deserving of a gold medal than she is. Marta is a six-time winner of FIFA's Player of the Year award and a nine-time league champion with her various club sides, but she's never won a major trophy with Brazil. This Olympic final is her last opportunity to do so.

The young players of the USWNT grew up watching Marta and are under no illusions when it comes to her greatness. "Marta has changed the game of soccer around the world," USWNT forward Trinity Rodman said in a press conference this week. "She's such a talented soccer player but also a great human, which, I mean, speaks volumes. I've always looked up to her. I think we all kind of do."

Brazil's squad contains more than just Marta, of course, and as the oldest player on this Olympic squad Marta is not guaranteed a start in the final. She'll be complimented by Adriana, one of strongest forwards in the National Women's Soccer League, and Tarciane, a solid 21-year-old defender. If the USWNT only prepares for Marta, it will be doomed to fail; Marta's true story in this final isn't about what she'll do on the field, it's about what she's already done on the field to inspire and grow the 17 other women on her team.

The USWNT is the favorite on paper, but it's gone through a hellish journey to make this final and has made no secret about how tired it is after playing out a full hours' worth of extra time in the knockout rounds. Can it push through the exhaustion to beat Brazil in gold medal final for the third time? Or will Brazil, powered by Marta's indefatigable spirit, flip the script and finally win the big prize?

We'll find out on Saturday. In the meantime, here are the bets we're eyeing:

The USWNT carefully managing both halves. Coach Emma Hayes has brought strategy in spades since she took over the USWNT this winter; she's not content to merely win games, she wants to win them correctly. With a familiar foe in front of them in Brazil, we're expecting the USWNT to control this game from the start. Betting on a USWNT win isn't particularly lucrative at -118, but betting on the USWNT to win both halves at +200 is a bit more interesting.

Mallory Swanson's unselfish play. Swanson has received the least attention of the USWNT's "Triple Espresso" attack: Sophia Smith and Trinity Rodman have stolen the headlines instead. We think that'll change in the final. With Brazil expecting the USWNT to build through Smith and Rodman in the wings, we think Swanson will be more open in the center than she's been all tournament, and we're backing her to score or assist at +125.

Marta ... because Marta. Come on. She's the all-time leading World Cup goalscorer and she's just one goal away from snatching the same record in the Olympics. We know she's unlikely to get as many minutes as her young teammates, but we can't resist the romance of her getting one more goal in the final. We're throwing stats to the wind and embracing the narrative here — and backing Marta as an anytime goalscorer at +375.

The USWNT takes on Brazil in the Olympic gold medal final on Saturday, Aug. 10 at 11 a.m. ET. See you there!