Golf best bets: Outright picks for the FedEx St. Jude Championship

After cashing a +400 outright ticket on Scottie Scheffler and a +1400 ticket on Tommy Fleetwood at the Paris Olympics, we followed it up by cashing Aaron Rai at +4000 to win the Wyndham Championship. Let's go! It feels good to finally cash some outright bets after coming so close for so many weeks.

With the FedEx Cup Playoffs set to begin this week, let's stay hot with our outright bets for the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind.

Ludvig Aberg (+2000 DraftKings )

The FedEx St. Jude Championship is the first round of the playoffs, so only 70 players are competing at TPC Southwind this week. That's why it's surprising to see Aberg, who's consistently been priced in the teens over the last few months, bumped up to 20-1 in a smaller field. We'll gladly buy the dip on an uber-talented player with no glaring weaknesses in his game.

TPC Southwind demands accuracy off the tee and precision with long irons due to its thick Bermuda rough and lurking water hazards. Well, Aberg ranks third on the PGA Tour this season in total driving and 10th in approaches from 150-175 yards. The 24-year-old's driver is in a bit of a funk right now, but he's a perfect fit for this golf course if he can dial in his normally elite off-the-tee play.

Hideki Matsuyama (+3300 FanDuel )

It can be hard to predict when Matsuyama is going to pop, but this week is as good as any. The Japanese star took home the bronze medal at the Paris Olympics while gaining 5.76 true strokes on approach, his best mark since the Players Championship in March. TPC Southwind is similar to Le Golf National with its penalizing rough and multiple water hazards, so Matsuyama should have no issues transitioning from Paris to the United States.

Matsuyama couldn't make a putt during his two weeks in Scotland, but he's gained strokes on the green in his six starts surrounding those two events. These lightning-fast Bermuda greens fit his eye much better than the slow Scotland surfaces. Matsuyama can also separate himself on this golf course with his sharp iron play, as he did in 2021 when he gained 10.16 strokes on approach and lost in a playoff to Abraham Ancer.

Billy Horschel (+5500 FD )

Horschel has always been a streaky player, and his arrow is pointing straight up right now. The American held the 54-hole lead at the British Open before Xander Schauffele chased him down with a stellar Sunday, and he finished T7 at the Wyndham Championship last week with an 8-under 62 in the first round.

After struggling with his irons all season, Horschel has put up his two best approach weeks of the year in back-to-back starts. That's great news heading into a demanding mid-iron test. Horschel is also hitting his driver with a ton of confidence right now, and he's on fire on the greens. In 12 career starts at TPC Southwind, Horschel has seven top-25 finishes and five top-10s.