Three to watch, one to avoid as NASCAR heads to Michigan

The NASCAR Cup Series rolls onto the Irish Hills of Brooklyn, Michigan for Sunday's Firekeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway.

With only three races remaining before the start of the playoffs, the bubble battle is as tight as ever . Big names could serve themselves well to lock in the playoffs with a victory.

With that in mind, here are three drivers to watch — a favorite, a contender and a dark horse — as well as one to avoid for the 24th race in 2024.

Favorite: Tyler Reddick (+850, per DraftKings as of Friday afternoon)

With how consistent he has raced lately, Reddick will eventually break through. He has only won once this season, a fortuitous parting of the seas at Talladega, but he has been in contention nearly every week and is only five points out of the full-season points lead.

Reddick had plenty of speed at Michigan a season ago, but pit-road issues led to a 30th-place finish. His 23XI Racing crew is less mistake-prone in 2024, so he is as good of a bet as anyone to win. His odds are only fifth highest, so you should take them as a gift.

Contender: Brad Keselowski (+1100)

Keselowski is another driver who was plenty fast at Michigan in 2023, finishing fourth. (His RFK Racing teammate, Chris Buescher, won.) Surprisingly, the Michigan-born Keselowski has never won at his home track, and for that reason, it's a race he has likely had circled on his calendar as one for the team he co-owns to bring its "A" game.

Keselowski should have the speed to compete once again, and with his odds only eighth highest, that's solid value for the 2012 Cup Series champion to pick up his second win of the season.

Dark horse: Ross Chastain (+2800)

It's tough to predict which version of Trackhouse Racing we will see on a given weekend, as far too often, the team has simply not brought much speed to the track. However, it's worth noting Chastain was fast at Michigan in both of his previous two races there, leading double-digit laps in both, and he sat on the outside of the front row a season ago.

Chastain needs a win more than just about anybody else in the field — he's tied with Buescher for the final playoff spot. Buescher won at Michigan in 2023, but it could be Chastain spoiling the party this time. His odds should be considered a bargain.

Avoid: Joey Logano (+1000)

Logano was part of last weekend's chaotic finish at Richmond , one corner away from winning before Austin Dillon spun him out. That said, don't expect him to show that same strength at Michigan, a track where he has won three times but has not led a lap since 2020.

Team Penske has lacked speed on NASCAR's intermediate tracks this season, which does not bode well for Logano. His odds seem way too high and are not worth your money.