Week 1 NFL underdog report: No love for the Chiefs, too much for the Eagles

NFL fans know that any team can beat another team in a given week. But forget the talk about “any given Sunday.” A pair of upsets could be on tap for Thursday and Friday night. (Odds via espn.com .)

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

After winning Super Bowl LVII against the Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City opened the 2023 regular season with a one-point home loss to the Lions. Could history repeat itself after the Chiefs victory in Super Bowl LVIII? It’s possible.

Baltimore’s season ended at home with a 17-10 loss to the Chiefs in last year’s AFC Championship Game. NFL MVP Lamar Jackson went 20-of-27 for 272 yards and a touchdown and finished as the team’s leading rusher with eight carries for 54 yards. Gus Edwards added 20 more yards, but he’s been replaced with a more efficient running back.

Derrick Henry ran for 1,167 yards with the Titans, second-most in the NFL behind San Francisco’s Christian McCaffrey (1,459) last season. The 30-year-old averaged 4.2 yards per attempt on a league-high 280 carries in 2023 and tied for seventh among running backs with 12 rushing touchdowns.

Kansas City allowed the second-fewest yards (289.8) and points (17.3) per game last season but their run defense was far worse than its fourth-ranked passing defense, allowing 113.2 yards per game on the ground.

The Ravens defense allowed 11.6 more yards per game than the Chiefs but no team allowed fewer points per game (16.5) in 2023. A strong defense with a much-improved running game should be enough for Baltimore to avenge last year’s playoff loss against a team looking to avoid yet another Super Bowl hangover.

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

Actually, the Eagles and Packers will both play in Corinthians Arena but Philadelphia is considered the home team for the NFL’s first game ever played in Sao Paolo, Brazil. For a team breaking in a pair of new coordinators in Kellen Moore (offense) and Vic Fangio (defense), the distraction of an overseas game could be problematic, especially against an up and coming team like Green Bay.

After a slow start that saw the Packers win just two of their first seven regular season games, Green Bay went on to win six of its last eight contests before suffering a three-point loss to San Francisco in the divisional round of last year’s playoffs.

Packers quarterback Jordan Love threw 18 touchdowns with one interception in those regular-season matchups, earning himself a four-year, $220M contract in the offseason. Meanwhile, Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts finished 2023 with 15 interceptions and four fumbles lost as Philadelphia struggled through a 1-6 finish to its regular season.

Hurts wasn’t the only one to blame for the team’s terrible finish. Only the Commanders gave up more passing yards per game (262.2) than the Eagles (252.7) last season and Philadelphia rushed for just 42 yards in the team’s 32-9 playoff loss against Tampa Bay.

Green Bay had a top-10 defense in 2023, allowing 20.6 points per game while Philadelphia’s defense gave up 25.2 points per game, third-most in the NFL. Adding a veteran coordinator like Fangio should help, but players may need time to adjust to his system.

Either way, Philadelphia looks to have its hands full with Love’s Packers in Brazil and have a real chance of starting 2024 with a loss.