College Football Analyst Josh Pate Predicts Michigan Could 'Fall Back Down to Earth' This Season

In a season filled with controversy and scandal, the Michigan Wolverines walked off the field in Houston, Texas back in January as the certified national champions of college football. Now they have to do the toughest thing any champion does after winning: defending.

But the team that excelled to a perfect 15-0 season, capturing its first national title in 26 years, won't be the same one that hits the field on Aug. 31 to face Fresno State at home in Michigan Stadium.

Michigan has just five starters returning in 2024, with only one returning on offense in tight end Colston Loveland.

As significant as losing the majority of a team's roster is, perhaps the biggest loss is that of former head coach Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh, of course, left to become the Los Angeles Chargers' head coach, but he took with him numerous staff members from the Wolverines, including defensive coordinator Jesse Minter.

This is not discounting new head coach Sherrone Moore by any means. Moore delivered when he was called upon to become interim head coach while Harbaugh served his suspensions.

Many will, however, overlook these pivotal staff and roster losses and believe that Moore and Michigan will get right back into the College Football Playoff simply because they are the defending national champs. While that will be easier with the expanded 12-team playoff, it wouldn't be shocking to see the Wolverines not return.

Or as Late Kick's Josh Pate said, "back down to earth."

"What if Michigan has a little more drop-off than is expected this year?" Pate asked. "... I think it bears repeating that Michigan had a pretty historic season last year. And then you had a pretty historic head coach hit the exit door. And then you had historic players hit the exit door. And so, you're looking at your preview magazines right now and Michigan is highly rated. Michigan is one of the odds-on favorites to contend for the Big Ten Championship. They are one of the odds-on favorites to make the College Football Playoff. Their over/under win total is 8.5 right now. ... But Michigan figures to be in the mix this year. Let's just say they aren't.

"You ask me what if Michigan isn't quite as good as the fanbase hopes? Well, my response would be, 'That's just college football.' And I'd say that absent Sherrone Moore. Remove Sherrone Moore from the equation for a second. If Jim Harbaugh was still there this year and you had the amount of impact players walk out the door that they had, I'd expect a Jim Harbaugh-led team to fall back down to earth a little bit this year."

Michigan also has to account for what the Big Ten will become this upcoming season, as the conference has expanded to 18 teams. They'll welcome in Pac-12 runoffs Oregon, USC, UCLA, and Washington, playing all but UCLA this season.

Not only that, but they'll also play host to SEC newcomer Texas in Week 2 at The Big House.

Perhaps it's time to get realistic and ease the expectations for Michigan in 2024.