NCAAF futures: Will Michigan hit the Over on wins this season?

Suffice it to say, Michigan football is going to look different this season. So exactly how will that impact their record this season? And more importantly, is that a record you should be betting on?

The Wolverines were undefeated last season in every sense of the word, going 15-0 in the regular season before beating the Washington Huskies in the CFP championship game. That kind of dominance might tempt a novice to back Michigan to keep dominating, but that doesn't look possible with a new coaching staff and revamped roster of players.

As things stand a little over a month from Week 1, DraftKings has set the over-under for Michigan regular season wins at 9. Is it smart to back the Wolverines to eclipse that mark?

Here is what to know before you place your bet.

For starters, DK is favoring Michigan to hit the Under at -135 odds while the Over is priced at +115.

Why would oddsmakers favor the Under for a team that just went undefeated and won a title? Because of the overhaul the program has undergone.

Like all college football teams, a new school year can mean a very different team will take the field. Heisman candidate and starting QB J.J. McCarthy is just one of the 13 players from last year's team selected in the 2024 NFL Draft. Even with senior — and Heisman hopeful — running back Donovan Edwards still on the team, Michigan will have a very different offense to work with in 2024.

The pressure is on Alex Orji to fill McCarthy's shoes. He is expected to run the ball more, which is a plus. But, as College Football News said, "as long as he’s working with TE Colston Loveland over and over again, relying on the pass-catching ability of Donovan Edwards, and connecting on around 65% of his throws all will be fine."

The other change that can impact Michigan hitting the Over on wins this season is the massive change to the coaching staff.

It might have taken Jim Harbaugh nine seasons, but he turned the Wolverines around in a big way and was at the helm when they went undefeated and won it all last year. He has now left for the NFL and taken several members of last year's coaching staff with him.

Sherrone Moore — the offensive coordinator who coached four games in Harbaugh's absence last season — is now the HC and has filled out his coaching staff . The offensive staff is made up of coaches who have stayed with Michigan while the defense-minded corps has newcomers with NFL experience like Stephen Agedoke and Wink Martindale. (And Michigan's defense has the potential to be really good this year.)

On paper, this looks like a coaching staff that can get the best out of a team in transition. Then again, College Football News estimates that it takes at least three seasons for new coaches to win half of their games or more.

With all of that in mind, should you bet on Michigan to hit the Over on regular-season wins?

A nine-win season seems plausible for a championship team going through roster and coaching changes, so it might be worth it to wait for the line to change to 8.5 of 9.5 games before placing your bets.  However, a 10-win season looks very possible for this group, so betting the Over at +115 is a good call.