Explore the Arizona monsoon pattern set-up, impacts, and when to expect its arrival in 2024

Thunderstorms and lightningPhoto byJohannes PlenioonUnsplash

According to the Arizona Weatherman, the term monsoon means season in Arabic, and for Arizona, it means a seasonal change in wind direction and weather that impacts the state. This article will describe the typical weather pattern and what to expect this monsoon season.

Typical monsoon set up weather patternPhoto byArizona Weatherman

The above image indicates the basic weather pattern during the summer monsoon season. A low-pressure center is located north of the Gulf of California, and a high-pressure center is located near the four corners region. This change usually occurs from June to October. This pattern shifts a general westerly wind to a more southeasterly flow, allowing more moisture to impact the state from the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf of California. This provides the moisture and fuel source for our thunderstorms to develop. Additionally, surface heating and orographic lifting help trigger the thunderstorms.

When does the Arizona monsoon usually start? Typically, the last week in June or the first week in July is the usual time of year. Officially, the National Weather Service has 15 June as the official start date, but normally, that is usually a bit early for most seasonal start times. The old way of determining the start date was three consecutive days of the dew point averaging at 55 F or higher. Usually, May and June typically have a prolonged period of drier and hotter temperatures for the state before the season kicks off. This initiates the above pattern to set up and draw in moisture.

Once this pattern sets up, it is common for state-wide intermittent thunderstorms to impact the region. These thunderstorms characteristically bring strong convective gusts of more than 50 mph, heavy localized rain, possible hail, and even infrequent tornadoes. The biggest threat is the strong winds and heavy rain that produce localized flooding. It is also possible to get a microburst with 70-100 mph winds that come down in a very localized area and can cause massive damage.

What does this summer monsoon season 2024 forecast look like? The Arizona Weatherman is expecting a hotter and drier than average season this year, but for more details on the monsoon forecast, please check out my more detailed article: “ Arizona Weatherman’s Summer 2024 Monsoon Forecast for Arizona.”

The Arizona Weatherman will keep track of the Arizona monsoon thunderstorms and provide timely, accurate, forecasts for the impacts of these storms. Remember no two monsoon seasons are alike therefore stay tuned to my forecasts during this upcoming season.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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