Rain showers and thunderstorms impacting Arizona this weekend

According to the Arizona Weatherman, Arizona will experience isolated rain showers and thunderstorms this weekend, but don’t expect much rain to hit the ground. During the weekend, an upper-level low will provide mid-level moisture over the state, fueling this convective activity. It will not be widespread but mainly focused on the Mogollon Rim and the southeastern section of Arizona.

Afternoon convective possibility Thursday 6 Jun 2024Photo byPivotal Weather

This convective activity is expected to impact the state between Thursday, 6 Jun 2024, and Saturday, 8 Jun 2024. This activity will be located mostly on the Mogollon Rim in the afternoon hours each day and also impact Cochise and Graham Counties on Friday and Saturday. The areas most likely impacted by this convective activity will be northern Greenlee, southern Apache, southern Navajo, northern Gila, and southern Coconino Counties. Additioanlly, this convection will be in the mountains even in southern Arizona such as the Huachucha, Whetstone, and Pinaleno Ranges.

Model data convective activity Saturday 8 Jun 2024Photo byWindy.com

According to the data, the southeasterly mid-level flow will provide moisture for this activity. However, not a lot of precipitation is expected to hit the ground. Much of this activity will be virga (rain not hitting the ground). This may produce thunderstorms with dry lightning and may cause wildfires. The model data also indicates low to moderate instability; therefore, I am not expecting severe weather with these storms. However, higher wind gusts between 35 mph and 50 mph are possible.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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