Arizona monsoon thunderstorms and rain showers kick-off update for 2024

According to the Arizona Weatherman, the Arizona Monsoon Season officially started on 15 Jun 2024. How are you enjoying the plethora of thunderstorms and rain showers? What and where are they, you say? And you would be correct; the convective activity has been mostly absent so far. But to be fair, the monsoon start date does not mean the pattern has actually been set up, but it will be coming soon. That is what the models indicate: an on-time typical climatological start date for the season to begin. The monsoon pattern is looking to start setting up around 21 Jun 2024 this year for Arizona.

Monsoon pattern set up for Arizona on 21 Jun 2024Photo byWindy.com

The above image shows a typical monsoon pattern: high pressure over the low and a southeasterly flow bringing in tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The big update is that two lows instead of one should develop in the Gulf of Mexico after 21 June 2024 and drive tropical moisture through Texas and Northern Mexico into Arizona. This moisture influx will add the moisture needed to produce thunderstorms and rain showers for the end of the month. This building pattern will be the start of the monsoon pattern for the state.

Model data for precipation totals out through 26 Jun 2024Photo byPivotal Weather

How much and where will the moisture impact the state? Unfortunately, not all of Arizona will enjoy this influx of tropical moisture. According to the above image, the model data through the afternoon of 26 Jun 2024 indicates that most of the convective activity and precipitation will be located over Cochise, Eastern Pima, Santa Cruz, Northern Greenlee, Southern Apache, Southern Navajo, Northern Gila, and Northern Arizona during this period. Cochise County is looking at .25” inch to .50 inch, Tucson .10” to .20”, Phoenix less than .10”, and Southern Apache in the mountains to get as much as 1.7”, Flagstaff about .10”. In the western half of the state, almost no moisture enters the area. This is largely due to the moisture source's location in the east.

This is looking like a great start time for the season. However, the Arizona Weatherman is still sticking with an average to below-average rainfall for the state this 2024 monsoon season. Stay tuned for more 2024 Arizona monsoon updates as they unfold over the season.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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