Arizona thunderstorms through the weekend include the potential for large hail and strong winds

According to the Arizona Weatherman, from Friday, 21 Jun to Sunday, 23 Jun 2024, expect thunderstorm activity to impact the state. There will be an increased potential for severe thunderstorms, strong convective gusts, and larger hail to impact the Mogollon Rim this weekend.

Convective model data indicating possible thunderstorms on 21 June 2024.Photo byPivotal Weather

On Friday, 21 June, the thunderstorm activity will be more isolated, primarily affecting Northern Arizona. However, as the day progresses, it will extend to Graham, Gila, Northern Cochise, Eastern Pinal, and Eastern Pima Counties. While the model data does not indicate a high potential of severe weather, it's important to note that these storms could bring 35-55 mph convective gusty winds.

Convective model data indicating possible thunderstorms for Arizona and severe potential on Saturday.Photo byWindy.com

On Saturday, 22 June, the convective models indicate a higher chance of severe weather on the Mogollon Rim with skew-T indices of LI values -5 to -6, CAPE values 1,800 to 2,200, and hail indicators over one inch. Therefore, the Arizona Weatherman is forecasting the potential for severe weather on the Rim with possible >60 mph convective gusts, and greater than one-inch hail is possible. The area most likely to be affected is highlighted in the above image. Please take necessary precautions.

On Sunday, 23 June, thunderstorms are still likely over the state, with the residual moisture from remnants of TS Alberto. This influx of moisture looks like it has kicked off the Arizona monsoon, as previously forecasted by the author. The Arizona Weatherman will continue to monitor the monsoon thunderstorms throughout the season. Have fun, and stay safe!

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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