Calm before the storm: Arizona monsoon lull to end with active first week in July

The Arizona Weatherman is looking at a near-term decrease in thunderstorms for Arizona as a whole in the next few days. Then, on 30 June 2024, the convective activity will become more active going into the first week of July. A tropical wave of moisture coming in from the Gulf of Mexico will reinvigorate this activity.

Upper-level ridge on model data 29 Jun 2024Photo byWindy.com

From Thursday, June 27, 2024, through Saturday, June 29, 2024, an upper-level ridge will suppress most thunderstorms throughout the state, as seen in the above image. Some isolated afternoon thunderstorms will still occur to the south and on the Mogollon Rim but with much less coverage than the recent convective activity over the last week. This is the lull expected before the activity kicks back on as of June 30th.

Model Precipitation data on 1 July 2024Photo byWindy.com

After the 30th, this ridge will recede over Arizona, allowing the convective activity to expand once more into the state. Secondly, a tropical wave currently tracking through the Caribbean and then into the Gulf of Mexico will make its way through Mexico and funnel some more tropical moisture into Arizona going into the first week of July. This will be the impetus for more thunderstorms to get more active.

July forecast for potential rain coverage over ArizonaPhoto byClimate Prediction Center

In the longer term, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) predicts that the month of July, particularly the latter part of the month, will have a leaning below-normal projection for rain, as depicted in the above image. This could be because our current ENSO neutral conditions could be moving toward a La Nina pattern as predicted by the CPC. This, in turn, could hinder the Eastern Pacific basin and limit impacts from that region as well. Overall, this aligns with the author’s previous prediction that the 2024 monsoon rain would likely be below normal overall.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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