Arizona Monsoon thunderstorms expand in coverage area and intensity for Sunday

The Arizona Weatherman predicted a lull in thunderstorm activity state-wide before increasing again on Sunday, 30 Jun 2024. This was correctly forecasted in my earlier article, “Calm before the storm: Arizona monsoon lull to end with active first week in July.” Today, expect an increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity throughout the afternoon and into the evening.

Model data for potential thunderstorms over Arizona for Sunday, 30 Ju 2024.Photo byPivotal Weather

The 300mb ridge axis has moved east as predicted, and the 500mb ridge has moved north, bringing a more southerly flow and tropical moisture to the state, particularly to the south-central and eastern parts of Arizona. This shift in weather patterns will likely lead to scattered thunderstorms after 12 pm with the potential for convective winds >60 mph, greater than one-inch hail, and localized flooding. Be prepared for these potential impacts. There will also be isolated thunderstorms on the Mogollon Rim.

This increase in convective activity and associated weather should be taken seriously. The author advises being aware of local radar and NWS warnings and not crossing flooded roadways, as this may be a potential threat to life and safety.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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