Monsoon Thunderstorm Alert: Intense scattered storms to impact Arizona today

According to the Arizona Weatherman, on Wednesday, 21 Aug 2024, expect stronger scattered monsoon thunderstorms to push into Southern Arizona during the afternoon hours and central and northern Arizona into the evening and early morning hours. The pattern today will likely extend into Thursday morning with severe thunderstorms. This pattern will be the most extensive push so far this week.

Model data for thunderstorms on Wednesday 21 Aug 2024Photo byPivotal Weather

The upper-level flow creates speed divergence over northern Arizona and directional diffluence for southern Arizona today. In the mid-levels, the high center is located near the Texas and New Mexico border, placing southern Arizona under a southeasterly to southerly flow that pumps moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico over the state. Additionally, the steering flow will be from the southeast, moving toward the northwest throughout the day. This system is gearing up to produce significant storms for southern Arizona and central to northern parts of the state.

The skew-t indices are in the moderate to high instability for the day with CAPEs in the 2,300 to 3,200 range, LI -7, no capping, supercell potential, hail indicated, and shearing evident on the data. Therefore, scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today, especially in the south to the central part of the state, and flooding to the north. Expect the high potential for winds >60 mph, dust in prone areas reducing visibility, hail up to one inch, localized flooding, and even a slight chance for tornadic activity today.

The main flow will kick off in Cochise, Santa Cruz, and Pima Counties after 1 p.m., move northward through the afternoon hours, and push into Pinal and Graham Counties. In the late afternoon and evening, expect a push into Maricopa County. The Mogollon Rim will also have isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Gila, Navajo, and Apache will have isolated storms and more activity with scattered storms over Yavapai, Northern Mohave, and Coconino Counties into the evening and early morning on Thursday. Some of the locations to expect thunderstorms in the vicinity or overhead are Tucson, Benson, Sierra Vista, Casa Grande, Phoenix, Prescott, Payson, Sedona, Flagstaff, and the Grand Canyon.

With the possibility of severe weather today, be aware of local weather conditions. This is looking like a potentially dangerous day to be out and traveling. Please be aware of your local radar, NWS warnings, flood-prone areas, and dust-prone areas.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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