What to Make of the Performance of the New York Mets’ Young Star

Francisco Alvarez was the number one prospect in all of baseball at the start of the 2023 season. There is no such thing as a can’t miss prospect, but Alvarez was labeled as a generational hitting talent.

Alvarez’s power from the catcher’s position built a very rare profile. The Mets have had a lot of catching success over the years. The comparisons to Mets legend Mike Piazza have been made for years. Piazza had the most career homers of any MLB catcher. Many claimed that Alvarez had the best chance of a catcher since Piazza played to break the record.

The young catcher has had periods of brilliance.

Alvarez got the chance to be the everyday catcher last year. He initially struggled, but he was incredible in May. Alvarez had seven home runs and a 1.029 OPS in May last year. But Alvarez was not able to carry the momentum into June when his OPS was almost halved.

Alvarez was back at it in July, when he held a .974 OPS with 8 home runs. Alvarez never got back to that level last year and actually finished the season with two pretty bad months.

2023 was a strange year for Alvarez. His highs were so high, but he also had stretches where he looked hopeless.

But that was to be expected. It was his rookie year. Alvarez finished 2023 with a .209 average, a .721 OPS, 25 home runs and 110 strikeouts.

Alvarez had a lot of clutch hits. He seemed to be built for the big moment. He also worked well with pitchers and had unique poise for a 21 year old.

Overall, 2023 was a total success. He made positive adjustments through the year and, even when his production was modest, Alvarez looked comfortable at the plate.

Alvarez entered 2024 with high expectations from himself and the organization. The start of the year did not go as planned. Early in the season, Alvarez was not hitting well then he needed thumb surgery that sidelined him until June.

When he returned, Alvarez excelled. This June was Alvarez’s best month of his MLB career. He had a 1.123 OPS in June. Interestingly, though, Alvarez did it without hitting home runs. He hit three home runs, but his success mostly came from hard hit singles and doubles.

And, once again, Alvarez was not able to keep the success going. The last two months have been really difficult for Alvarez. He has a .444 OPS since the All Star break. Alvarez has only one home run since the beginning of July.

Alvarez’s home run rate is way down from last year. For the season, he has only five home runs.

In June, Alvarez walked 8 times and struck out only nine times. Since then, Alvarez’s strikeout rate has gone way up. In July, he walked 5 times and struck out 23 times.

Alvarez has started August with 10 strikeouts and no walks. It is concerning that Alvarez has come out of the approach that has brought him success. Alvarez looks more like the uncomfortable rookie from April and June of last year. He is taking big swings and not looking to hit line drives the other way.

Alvarez knows that the catcher's spot is his for years to come. Yet, he clearly worries and overthinks when he begins to struggle and it leads to his swing and his approach reverting back to a bad place. Alvarez dominated at every point in his career before coming to the bigs. It is natural that he does not enjoy his slumps and overcorrects to fix things.

With more experience, Alvarez will learn to continue to trust his approach, no matter what. He is still only 22, younger than most top prospects. Regardless of how his year ends, Alvarez will enter 2025 as a 23 year old starting his third full year in the bigs. Alvarez has all the time, talent and character to become the player he is supposed to be.

Alvarez is still very young. He has proven his ability at the major league level. But, offensively, Alvarez has had more bad stretches than good. It will be great if, with age, he can find some consistency. There is all the reason to think he will do so.