It's been 18 years since Ohio State quarterback Troy Smith won the Big Ten's last Heisman Trophy, but this could be the season the newly expanded conference breaks back into the winner's circle in the chase for the Bronze Berwanger.
Big Ten stars won five of the first ten Heisman Trophies, Jay Berwanger of Chicago (at the time a Big Ten team) in 1935, Nile Kinnick in 1939, Michigan halfback Tom Harmon 1940, Minnesota halfback Bruce Smith 1941, QB/HB Les Horvath of Ohio State in 1944.
Five of the most recent ten have gone to the SEC, three to Alabama, two to LSU. Once dominated by halfbacks, the modern award has been the province of dual threat quarterbacks. Jayden Daniels of 9-3 LSU put on a furious rush of late season stats in blowouts to lock down the award last year.
Top candidates in this year's Big Ten:
Dillon Gabriel, Oregon quarterback
FanDuel odds: +700
Gabriel would be the second Duck ever to win the Heisman, and his candidacy requires consistency week-to-week coupled with stellar performances in the team's big showdowns with Ohio State and Michigan. Oregon is not yet a blueblood, so for an outsider to win the Stiff-Arm Trophy, he has to be exceptional on a team that meets or exceeds expectations. Gabriel can't have any clunkers. His offense has to be explosive and rise to those big game challenges.
Will Howard, Ohio State quarterback
FanDuel odds: +1400
Howard has to make a leap in production. He was great at Kansas State on a team he had to carry from time to time, 25 TD passes, 9 rushing touchdowns, but 10 interceptions. At Ohio State he's got superior firepower plus a defense that will set him up with scoring opportunities. He's surrounded by explosive players that can turn simple throws into spectacular plays, and he'll be free to pick his spots, play-action passes, keepers, shots downfield.
Chip Kelly made a career of maximizing the talents of a diverse array of quarterbacks with different skillsets: Dennis Dixon, Jeremiah Masoli, Darron Thomas, Marcus Mariota, Dorian Thompson-Robinson. It's highly likely that he'll put Howard in a position to succeed and talk him through the most difficult moments. An uptick in Howard's performance seems inevitable; many pundits have tabbed the Buckeyes to sweep the Big Ten and win it all.
Quinshon Judkins
FanDuel odds: +10000
A high volume running back on a national champion team is always a threat to steal the Heisman from the glamor boys, and Judkins has the combination of speed, power and durability to make that happen.
Problem is, generally running backs have to approach 2000 yards to make a Heisman run, and the Buckeye offense may be too diversified for that to happen. Kelly's committed to running the football and dictating the game with power, but the tandem of runners in the tOSU backfield is so strong that Judkins won't get enough touches to stay in the race. Treveyon Henderson is too good a back himself, sure to siphon off some of the carries.
Donovan Edwards, Michigan running back
FanDuel odds: +10000
Oddly, Edwards has a better chance of emerging as a darkhorse Heisman finalist than Judkins, simply because the Wolverines will have to lean heavily on the running game and their stellar defense to compete for the Big Ten title. Most experts expect the Maize and Blue to regress this season, but if there's an avenue for them to surprise, it's a formula of ball control and a physical, stingy defense.
The Big Ten field
There are some great players in this conference outside the running backs and quarterbacks. High-volume receivers like Emeka Egbuka or Tez Johnson of the Ducks could string together some big plays and Heisman moments to emerge from the pack like DaVonta Smith of Alabama in 2020.
If a defensive player is ever going to win another Heisman, the conference has some elite stars that could garner that level of attention. Caleb Downs, Denzel Burke, and Will Johnson are three examples. Downs gains a potential edge in that he's likely to be the Buckeye punt returner. Big plays in a two-way or three-way capacity are always a boost to a wide receiver or defensive back's chances. That was the route that made Desmond Howard an award winner in 1991.
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