Bleacher Report predicts OKC will win fewer games than last season

With the Oklahoma City Thunder’s 2024–25 season schedule released, win predictions are coming into full swing. After getting 57 wins a season ago, it goes without saying that the blue and orange have a tall bar to clear. For a young team, concerns about its ability to withstand intense pressure and expectations are fair. However, Oklahoma City will argue it has the best-positioned young roster the NBA has seen in many years.

How many games will OKC win next season?

Ever since adding Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartestein to the roster over the summer, few have predicted anything under 55 wins for the Thunder. However, rattling off a win number is rather arbitrary, especially when the season is still two months from tipping off.

With many incalculable variables like coaching decisions, injuries, team chemistry, matchups, the number of back-to-back games, and so much more, giving the Thunder (or any team) a win total is purely a guess. As a stark reminder, OKC almost completely avoided the injury bug last season, which is a complete rarity in today’s game.

With that being said, however, there is a certain level we all expect this team to reach and maintain next season. While it may be wiser to lay out a few bullet points of goals for the team’s 82-game sprint, Bleacher Report recently gave its projected win total for the Thunder, and it may surprise some folks.

“Swapping Alex Caruso for Josh Giddey makes sense, too. He's smaller and doesn't have the same kind of upside, but Caruso's perimeter defense, timely shooting, and low usage fit better with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Speaking of the second-place finisher for MVP, he'll be in that mix again this season. And with Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace both on the upward sides of their developmental curves, it's safe to assume the Thunder could be even better than they were in 2023–24. But again, wins are going to be a nightmare to come by in the West. So, even if OKC is improved, it won't necessarily exceed 2023-24's win total,” writes BR’s Andy Bailey.

The Thunder’s projected win-loss record, according to Bleacher Report is 55-27.

Should the Thunder go all-in on regular-season wins?

One of the hottest back-and-forth debates in recent years is whether teams should choose to either pace themselves or go pedal to the medal to compile as many wins as possible. Where do the Thunder fall along this spectrum, and what makes the most sense for them?

Indeed, this question is not one-size-fits-all. For an older and more experienced team that has had its core united for multiple years, it maybe isn’t the brightest idea to launch an unwavering effort throughout the 82-game sprint. However, a young and emerging roster — a’la OKC’s — has a different set of circumstances.

Under the stewardship of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the union of the star point guard, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren, OKC is only entering year 2 — year 2 ! — of the operation. The large number in last year’s win column, while dazzling, shouldn’t take away from where along the time scale this franchise is. They still have much to accomplish, and it starts with playing together. Williams and Holmgren, both of whom were drafted in 2022, have just 71 games played together under their belt. They are still learning each other’s games as Gilgeous-Alexander learns their games.

So, what’s the verdict? Oklahoma City will need to focus on chemistry-building and reps during the upcoming season, leaving them, by default, to go for as many wins as they can without exhausting the approach. A win range in the 50s is a safe estimation.

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