Austin lands within Hurricane Beryl's possible path, though forecast not yet certain

Hurricane Beryl, which on Thursday was passing the Cayman Islands after devastating Jamaica and leaving 11 dead across the region, could make its way to Austin early next week, according to the storm's latest forecast path.

Austin first appeared in Beryl’s cone of uncertainty, or the projected path, on Wednesday night, according to the National Hurricane Center. The NHC’s Thursday morning reports showed Central Texas within the cone's northernmost boundary, with the storm potentially reaching Austin within the next five days.

National Weather Service Meteorologist Mack Morris told the American-Statesman on Thursday that Austin’s inclusion within the cone far from guarantees that the city will endure the impact of what is now a Category 3 storm, which could be downgraded to a Category 1 by the time it reaches Texas. After all, the NHC’s forecast cone grows larger the farther away it is from the storm due to uncertainty.

“For us it’s still an uncertain forecast,” Morris said. “We should start to get a better idea on exactly where it’s going to go once it makes its way to the Gulf (of Mexico). But that’s still another day-and-a-half away.”

After barraging through Jamaica on Wednesday, Beryl is expected to approach and move past the Cayman Islands Thursday as it heads west toward western Cuba and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, which includes the resort city of Cancun.

The weather service office in Corpus Christi said Wednesday afternoon that there is a growing chance the storm could make landfall in northeast Mexico or the South Texas coast as a Category 1 hurricane.

The National Hurricane Center has cautioned those planning to travel to Texas’ coastline over the Fourth of July weekend to be aware of the storm’s potential to create dangerous swimming conditions, including aggressive rip currents.

Hurricane Beryl Tracker:See projected path of Category 4 storm as it heads toward Jamaica

The deciding factor for Central Texas, Morris said, will be the location of pressure fields, known as ridges and troughs, influencing on the hurricane.

A ridge will push Beryl clockwise, largely west and away from the north. Conversely, a trough sends the storm’s forces northward. If the trough weakens the ridge, Beryl could move more into Texas.

If the storm were to reach Austin, it wouldn’t be until Monday or Tuesday at the earliest, Morris said.

Updates on Hurricane Beryl’s trajectory can be found on the National Hurricane Center’s website.