Will Quinn Ewers carry the Texas Longhorns offense to the playoffs, or will Arch Manning take his job?

Expectations are tremendously high around the Texas Longhorns. It's understandable. Head coach Steve Sarkisian struck gold in 2023, leading the Longhorns to the brink of a national championship appearance.

The quarterback room and offense were a big factor in their improvement. Quinn Ewers blossomed into one of the better passers in the nation, and the playmaking around him was elite. Ewers and Sarkisian have a new challenge this fall.

However, the Longhorns probably didn't expect to be in the situation they're facing entering 2024. When Texas landed the 5-star transfer Ewers from Ohio State in 2022 and landed super recruit Arch Manning, the timeline was supposed to be clear. Ewers should be in the 2024 NFL Draft, and Manning would've been in line to earn the starting job right now.

Sarkisian had no choice but to hand Ewers the starting gig entering the Texas spring game. Ewers was an efficient game manager throughout 2023, completing 69% of his passes for 22 touchdowns and only six interceptions. Texas won 12 games and almost made the national title game.

However, Ewers' issues outside of structure and durability are limiting factors that were mitigated by a tremendous supporting cast. AD Mitchell, Xavier Worthy, Jonathon Brooks, and others are gone. This Texas offense is talented but green.

Getting Isaiah Bond from Alabama will specifically help replace Worthy. Matthew Golden was great at Houston. Tailbacks CJ Baxter and Jaydon Blue are explosive.

And yet, if Ewers isn't great or Texas stumbles multiple times against Michigan, Oklahoma, or Georgia, a change might be coming. It'd seem insane for the cover boy of College Football 25 to be benched, but Ewers' weaknesses could be exposed in a way he can't compensate.

That's why Texas' QB room projection could include Arch Manning despite Ewers being a potential Heisman contender and All-American. Few teams have such a range of outcomes at the most important position in the game.

The pressure on Ewers to either repeat the team's top-15 offensive finish and be even more of a playmaker or possibly be benched is remarkable. Manning has only five career passing attempts, but the Longhorns have little reason to force Ewers on the field if they fall out of the College Football Playoff picture. Of course, with it being a 12-team race, they could still earn a bid with three losses.

Maybe it's too much of a doomsday scenario to think Ewers will play for his job at various times of the year. Manning hasn't been upset with his lack of playing time thus far, so Sarkisian might only be hearing it from fans about getting the sophomore on the field. We know it'll be a complete non-issue if Texas competes for the SEC title or at least an at-large bid.

The other side of the coin is what is the team's upside if Ewers hits it big. If he improves his reaction to pressure, is more creative out of structure, and is more consistent overall, then Ewers could become the top pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. That outcome would help this CFP projection come true.