Will LSU take a step back on third down without Jayden Daniels?

Expectations remain high for LSU’s offense, but the pieces will be different in 2024. The Tigers have a new quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier . There’s a change at offensive coordinator too with Mike Denbrock out and Joe Sloan stepping in.

The offense was the best in the sport last year, leading the country in yards per game and yards per play. The unit was so good that LSU rarely faced third down. But when the Tigers got there, they remained elite. LSU converted third downs at a clip of 51.72%, which was second in the country.

Jayden Daniels was responsible for most of those third downs, whether he did it through the air or on the ground. A quarterback who can do it all like that is an advantage for teams on third down. In third and short, defenses have to account for the QB in the run game. On third and long, Daniels could scramble if the defense dropped deep into zone.

Daniels’ legs gave LSU more ways of getting where it needed to go. Now, with Daniels gone, will LSU take a step back on third down?

LSU faced 129 third downs in 2023. Just 10.8% of those were Daniels’ runs. When you look at conversions, it wasn’t a huge chunk either. Just 11.8% of LSU’s third-down conversions came on a Daniels run.

LSU didn’t rely on Daniels’ legs at a high volume on third down, but when you look at the ones he did get, it’s evident how important they were. Nine of the 13 drives where Daniels scrambled or ran resulted in a touchdown.

The Missouri game was the best example of this. That’s a contest LSU likely doesn’t win without Daniels’ third-down playmaking. In the fourth quarter, Daniels converted a first down with his legs three times. The biggest highlight was a 35-yard touchdown run that added 30% to LSU’s win probability.

With LSU down four later in the quarter, Daniels picked up a third and five with just over three minutes left. LSU eventually took the lead on that drive.

But LSU’s third-down success in 2023 was largely due to how good the offense was on first and second down. An offense that led the country in yards per pass and yards per rush was rarely in third and long.

LSU’s offense will be good in 2024, but it likely won’t be as prolific as 2023’s. Denbrock and Daniels were a veteran OC and QB combo. Sloan and Nussmeier might take a second to warm up, which could lead to some third-down trouble early in the season. Nussmeier has been around, though, and I don’t expect it to be too much of a factor.

There will be times when this offense misses a QB that can run for 20 yards on third and six. Nussmeier won’t give you that, which could make LSU’s offense more predictable at times. But outside of a few big plays, LSU didn’t rely on Daniels for that much last year anyway.

It’s something to keep an eye on, but if you’re an LSU fan, I wouldn’t stress too much about the third-down offense, even with a pocket passer stepping in at quarterback.

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