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How streaking Diamondbacks got back in playoff position: Five ways reigning NL champs turned the season around
By Mike Axisa,
1 day ago
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As recently as June 28, the Arizona Diamondbacks were under .500 at 39-43, and 3 1/2 games behind the third wild-card spot with four teams ahead of them. They were 11 1/2 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West. Last year's National League champs slogged through the first three months of the season and looked like a fringe contender at best.
Now, on Aug. 14, the D-backs are the hottest team in baseball, having won nine of their last 10 games and 17 of their last 20 games (three losses by a total of four runs). Their 29-10 record since June 29 is the best in baseball by four games. Arizona is now in the top wild-card spot and six games up on a postseason berth. They're only 3 1/2 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West.
"It's been awesome," the red-hot Jake McCarthy said following his walk-off two-run single against the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday ( via MLB.com ). "But, you know, we want to continue to improve on this, and take this into September and the postseason."
The D-backs have done this even though Christian Walker , their Gold Glove first baseman and cleanup hitter, has been out with an oblique strain since July 30. Stalwart catcher Gabriel Moreno went down with a groin strain last week. Paul Sewald struggled so much he had to be removed from the closer's role. Jordan Montgomery still hasn't gotten his year on track after signing on the eve of Opening Day.
And yet, Arizona continues to pile up wins, including three walk-off wins in their last nine home games. They haven't lost a home series since late June. Heck, they haven't lost any series since late June. The D-backs dropped two of three to the Minnesota Twins at Chase Field from June 25-27. That was their last series loss. They are 12-0-1 in 13 series since.
How have the Diamondbacks turned their season around and become the hottest team in the sport? Here are five reasons for their recent surge, which has put them in position to at least think about the possibility of a division title.
Corbin Carroll , last year's NL Rookie of the Year, woke up on the morning of June 5 with a ghastly .192/.278/.279 batting line in 254 plate appearances. He looked nothing like the player who finished fifth in the NL MVP voting a year ago. There was speculation Carroll was playing through an injury. Smarter people noted his bat path had become too flat .
Whatever the reason, Carroll is back to being a high-end performer. He is slashing .248/.336/.491 in 243 plate appearances since my admittedly cherry-picked date of June 5. It's a .256/.347/.651 line with eight home runs since July 13. There was little chance the D-backs would get to the postseason without Carroll performing at a high level, and now he's back to being an impact player.
Walker's oblique injury is going to sideline him several weeks. Fortunately for the D-backs, the injury happened right before the trade deadline, so they were able to swing a small deal with the Miami Marlins to add Josh Bell as first base depth. Bell was hitting .239/.305/.394 with 14 homers in 104 games with Miami. Not great, but better than what Arizona had in-house to replace Walker.
Since the trade, Bell has been excellent, hitting .300/.352/.660 with four home runs in 14 games. He cannot replace Walker's glove at first base, pretty much no one can, but Bell has more than capably stepped into the cleanup spot and provided power and run production. Things at first base have gone as well as the D-backs could have reasonably hoped since Walker's injury.
Bell has been great since the trade, Carroll looks like himself again, and Ketel Marte is playing at an MVP level. Arizona is scoring 5.23 runs per game, the most in baseball, largely because of those three, and also because others have really elevated their game of late. McCarthy is the hottest hitter on the hottest team in the league. Here's he is walking off the Rockies on Tuesday:
In his last six games, McCarthy is 13 for 27 (.482) with three homers and 15 -- 15! -- RBI. We know RBI are not the best way to evaluate hitters, but good gravy, 15 RBI in six games? McCarthy's hitting .460/.477/.730 in his last 17 games. The 27-year-old had a 117 OPS+ in 2022, then slipped to a disappointing 77 OPS+ in 2023. He's rebounded to a 135 OPS+ in 2024.
Veteran third baseman Eugenio Suárez started the season terribly, so much so that the D-backs cut back on his playing time in early June. In his last 32 games though, Suárez is hitting .294/.336/.647 with nine doubles and 11 home runs. Suárez rediscovering his power stroke and McCarthy getting molten hot have added length to an already dangerous lineup.
On paper, it may not look like the most imposing lineup in baseball, especially with Moreno and Walker injured, but Arizona has been an offensive juggernaut these last few weeks. They're hitting .305/.368/.565 as a team in the last 20 games and are averaging 6.90 runs in those 20 games. One through nine, this is a very dangerous lineup.
Workhorse righty Merrill Kelly , out since mid-April with a shoulder strain, returned this past Sunday and held the Phillies to two runs in five innings. Eduardo Rodriguez made his season debut last week and has given the D-backs two workmanlike starts as he builds up his pitch count. He missed the first four months of the season after hurting his shoulder in spring training.
The D-backs have used 14 different starting pitchers this season. They've waited months for the cavalry to arrive and now here it is. Kelly and Rodriguez are healthy and taking the ball every fifth day. For the first time all season, the rotation is whole. Arizona finally has the starting pitching staff it planned to have in Kelly, Montgomery, Rodriguez, Zac Gallen , and Brandon Pfaadt . Montgomery has struggled, for sure, but every night the D-backs send a quality pitcher to the mound.
Hard-throwing Justin Martinez , owner of elite strikeout (28.8%) and ground ball (63.7%) rates, has ascended to the closer's role and is 3 for 3 in save chances since Sewald was removed from the ninth inning. A.J. Puk has been outstanding since coming over in a trade with the Marlins (one run and 11 strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings) and veteran Dylan Floro provides additional bullpen depth.
Add in sidewinder Ryan Thompson , workhorse Kevin Ginkel , and left-on-left ground ball monster Joe Mantiply , and the D-backs have one of the deepest and most diverse bullpens in the game. They have a variety of looks -- different arm angles, different pitch shapes, different velocity ranges, etc. -- and can match up with any part of any lineup. It's an impressive and formidable group.
During this 17-3 stretch the Diamondbacks have raised their postseason odds from 40.5% to 91.5%, per FanGraphs . There is still a lot of season to be played and no one has clinched anything yet, but Arizona has positioned itself well to return to the postseason. It's a powerhouse offense, the rotation has five quality arms, the bullpen is deeper than it has been at any point in 2024, and they have postseason experience too. This Diamondbacks squad, it's a handful.
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