Fever vs. Mercury prediction, odds, spread, line: 2024 WNBA picks, Caitlin Clark best bets for Aug. 16

Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever return from their Olympic break when they host the Phoenix Mercury on Friday at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Fever (11-15) enter the game in seventh place in the WNBA standings, just percentage points ahead of the eighth-place Chicago Sky (10-14). The top eight teams at the conclusion of the regular season on Sept. 19 will qualify for the playoffs. Meanwhile the Mercury (13-12) exit the break in six place in the standings, 2.5 games ahead of Indiana. Phoenix will be playing the second half of a back-to-back after Thursday's game at Chicago.

Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. Indiana is a 4-point favorite in the latest Fever vs. Mercury odds, while the over/under is 174.5. Before you lock in any Mercury vs. Fever picks or WNBA predictions, you need to see what SportsLine's Calvin Wetzel has to say .

Wetzel, HerHoopStats.com's lead betting writer, incorporates his mathematical background and strong knowledge of women's hoops to turn the site's prediction model into picks. After teaming up with Aaron Barzilai, a Ph.D. from Stanford, Wetzel is an incredible 1,385-988 (+372.33 units) on women's college basketball picks since the start of the 2021-22 season. He's also coming off a great 2023 season with a 238-185-1 overall record that featured a return on investment of nearly 7%. Anyone following him has seen huge returns.

Now, Wetzel has broken down Fever vs. Mercury from every angle and just revealed his picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see his picks . Here are the lines and trends for Mercury vs. Fever:

• Fever vs. Mercury spread: Indiana -4
• Fever vs. Mercury over/under: 174.5 points
• Fever vs. Mercury moneyline: Indiana -170, Phoenix +143
• IND: Caitlin Clark leads the WNBA in assists per game (8.2)
• PHO: Kahleah Copper ranks second in the league in scoring (23.2 points per game)
• Fever vs. Mercury picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Fever can cover

Clark entered the Olympic break on a roll. Over her last nine regular-season games, the rookie superstar averaged 11.9 assists per game, including 12 and 13 in two games against the Mercury and a WNBA-record 19 in her final game before the break. She leads the league in assists per game (8.2).

In addition, Clark and Indiana have had the Mercury's number this season. The Fever have won both meetings against Phoenix this year. On June 30, Indiana beat the Mercury, 88-82, in Phoenix. Less than two weeks later, the Fever knocked off the Mercury, 95-86, in Indianapolis. See picks at SportsLine .

Why the Mercury can cover

Phoenix has one of the best scorers in the league in Kahleah Copper. The four-time WNBA All-Star and former WNBA Finals MVP and ranks second in the league in scoring (23.2 points per game). In the gold medal game against France, Copper scored 10 fourth-quarter points to help Team USA to a one-point win.

In addition, Brittney Griner is one of the best bigs in the WNBA. The 6-foot-9 Griner averages 18.6 points and 6.4 rebounds a game this season while shooting 55.8% from the field. Earlier this month she helped Team USA to the gold medal at the Paris Olympics. See the picks at SportsLine .

How to make Fever vs. Mercury picks

Wetzel has analyzed Mercury vs. Fever from every angle, and he's leaning Over on the point total. He has also found a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread as well as a player prop. He's sharing what it is, and which side to back, only at SportsLine .

So who wins Fever vs. Mercury on Friday, and what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the expert with a history of crushing his women's basketball picks , and find out.