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NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model eyeing Chargers, Bills in Week 1, 2024
By CBS Sports Staff,
19 hours ago
USATSI
Sportsbooks tend to err on the side of caution when it comes to Week 1 NFL spreads, and that's evident by this year's Week 1 NFL lines. Bengals vs. Patriots (+9) is the only matchup with a spread of at least a touchdown, with both teams coming off last-place finishes in their respective divisions. The smallest spread, according to the latest Week 1 NFL odds, has the Vikings as 1-point road favorites over the Giants. That contest is just one of two on the Week 1 NFL schedule in which the road team is favored. The other has the visiting Texans as 1.5-favorites over the Colts.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 185-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 39-21 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 1 NFL picks is that the Chargers (-3.5) cover the spread at home versus the Raiders . Jim Harbaugh is 4-0 outright in his NFL coaching career in Week 1 games, and his QB in Justin Herbert has dominated the Raiders throughout his career. Herbert has 18 total touchdowns versus just two turnovers in seven games against the Raiders. He's now boosted by a power run game with L.A. adding J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards from the Ravens, after the Chargers never finished better than 18th in rushing throughout Herbert's career.
On defense, Khalil Mack terrorized his former team last year, notching a career-high of six sacks when the squads met in Los Angeles. He managed that without having Joey Bosa lined up on the other side, but the four-time Pro Bowler is back healthy. Raiders QB Gardner Minshew faced the Chargers twice in his career before landing in Las Vegas, and Minshew lost both by double-digits. The SportsLine model has the Chargers (-3.5) covering almost 60% of the time. See which other teams to pick here .
Another one of its Week 1 NFL predictions: the Bills (-5.5) cover at home versus the Cardinals . Buffalo enters the season as balanced offensively as it has been in the Josh Allen era due to the fact that everything doesn't fall on Allen himself. RB James Cook emerged over the second half of last year and ended up with over 1,500 scrimmage yards for the season. He should thrive against arguably the league's worst run defense as the Cardinals allowed the most rushing yards a year ago and the fifth-most rushing scores.
On the other side of the ball, the Bills' opportunistic defense had 30 takeaways last season, the third-most in the NFL. That makes this a bad matchup for Kyler Murray, who has 28 total fumbles over his last 29 games, to go along with 18 interceptions over that stretch. With that, the model foresees a blowout, with Buffalo winning by double-digits and covering as 6.5-point favorites in nearly 70% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here .
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