NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model eyeing Chargers, Bills in Week 1, 2024

Sportsbooks tend to err on the side of caution when it comes to Week 1 NFL spreads, and that's evident by this year's Week 1 NFL lines. Bengals vs. Patriots (+9) is the only matchup with a spread of at least a touchdown, with both teams coming off last-place finishes in their respective divisions. The smallest spread, according to the latest Week 1 NFL odds, has the Vikings as 1-point road favorites over the Giants. That contest is just one of two on the Week 1 NFL schedule in which the road team is favored. The other has the visiting Texans as 1.5-favorites over the Colts.

With the NFL betting odds being as tight as they are for the opening week, it only makes sense to consult NFL betting advice to start the new season. All of the Week 1 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 1 NFL picks now .

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 185-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 39-21 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds and NFL betting lines on the spread , money line , and over-under , and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick .

Top Week 1 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 1 NFL picks is that the Chargers (-3.5) cover the spread at home versus the Raiders . Jim Harbaugh is 4-0 outright in his NFL coaching career in Week 1 games, and his QB in Justin Herbert has dominated the Raiders throughout his career. Herbert has 18 total touchdowns versus just two turnovers in seven games against the Raiders. He's now boosted by a power run game with L.A. adding J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards from the Ravens, after the Chargers never finished better than 18th in rushing throughout Herbert's career.

On defense, Khalil Mack terrorized his former team last year, notching a career-high of six sacks when the squads met in Los Angeles. He managed that without having Joey Bosa lined up on the other side, but the four-time Pro Bowler is back healthy. Raiders QB Gardner Minshew faced the Chargers twice in his career before landing in Las Vegas, and Minshew lost both by double-digits. The SportsLine model has the Chargers (-3.5) covering almost 60% of the time. See which other teams to pick here .

Another one of its Week 1 NFL predictions: the Bills (-5.5) cover at home versus the Cardinals . Buffalo enters the season as balanced offensively as it has been in the Josh Allen era due to the fact that everything doesn't fall on Allen himself. RB James Cook emerged over the second half of last year and ended up with over 1,500 scrimmage yards for the season. He should thrive against arguably the league's worst run defense as the Cardinals allowed the most rushing yards a year ago and the fifth-most rushing scores.

On the other side of the ball, the Bills' opportunistic defense had 30 takeaways last season, the third-most in the NFL. That makes this a bad matchup for Kyler Murray, who has 28 total fumbles over his last 29 games, to go along with 18 interceptions over that stretch. With that, the model foresees a blowout, with Buffalo winning by double-digits and covering as 6.5-point favorites in nearly 70% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here .

How to make Week 1 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 1 NFL schedule and just revealed four teams that win outright over 70% of the time. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine .

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which four favorites should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000 , and find out.

Week 1 NFL betting odds, lines, spreads

Get Week 1 NFL picks at SportsLine

Thursday, Sept. 5

Ravens at Chiefs (-3, 46.5)

Friday, Sept. 6

Packers vs. Eagles (-2.5, 48.5) -- in Brazil

Sunday, Sept. 8

Steelers at Falcons (-3, 41.5)

Cardinals at Bills (-5.5, 48)

Titans at Bears (-4.5, 43.5)

Patriots at Bengals (-9, 42.5)

Texans at Colts (+1.5, 48.5)

Jaguars at Dolphins (-3.5, 49)

Panthers at Saints (-4, 40)

Vikings at Giants (+1, 41.5)

Raiders at Chargers (-3.5, 42.5)

Broncos at Seahawks (-5, 42)

Cowboys at Browns (-2, 43)

Commanders at Buccaneers (-3, 41.5)

Rams at Lions (-3.5, 51)

Monday, Sept. 9

Jets at 49ers (-4, 44)