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NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model targeting Chargers, Bills in Week 1, 2024

By CBS Sports Staff,

2 days ago

https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=1WGk7S_0v9YsRhj00 — USATSI

The New York Jets will visit the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1. Aaron Rodgers will begin the 2024 NFL season just as he began the prior one, on Monday Night Football. He's hoping this outing lasts longer than the four snaps last year, as his Jets are 3.5-point underdogs in the latest Week 1 NFL odds. The Niners originally opened as six-point favorites when the Week 1 NFL spreads were first posted. Money appears to be coming in on New York, causing the NFL betting lines to change.

Bettors could be aware that the Niners were just 3-7 against the spread at home last season. All of the Week 1 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 1 NFL picks now .

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 185-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 39-21 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds and NFL betting lines on the spread , money line , and over-under , and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick .

Top Week 1 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 1 NFL picks is that the Chargers (-3.5) cover the spread at home versus the Raiders . The Chargers have both won and covered each of their last three home games against the Raiders, winning by an average of 8.8 points per game. Justin Herbert has a 7:1 TD:INT over those contests, with twice as many rushing touchdowns than interceptions.

Vegas is also projected to have offensive struggles, considering it will roll out journeyman Gardner Minshew at QB and the unproven Zamir White at RB. The Raiders really had nothing to hang their hats on offensively last year, ranking in the bottom 10 in points scored, yards gained, rushing offense, passing offense, third-down conversion and redzone scoring. Minshew isn't known as one who elevates offenses, and he won't have the luxury of former rushing champ Josh Jacobs in the backfield. The Chargers (-3.5) are forecasted to cover nearly 60% of the time, while the model backs the Over (42.5) in over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here .

Another one of its Week 1 NFL predictions: the Bills (-6) cover at home versus the Cardinals . Arizona overhauled its coaching staff last season but still had the same results, particularly on defense. The Cardinals have ranked 31st in scoring defense in each of the past two seasons, and a lack of a pass rush is a big reason why. Arizona had the third-fewest sacks in 2023, in addition to having the fifth-fewest takeaways.

If you can't bring down Josh Allen or force him into turning the ball over, then your chances to win or even compete are slim. The model projects Arizona's defense to struggle in both regards, as Allen is projected to have less than one turnover and get sacked fewer than two times. Facing little deterrence, Buffalo is expected to score a touchdown more than it averaged last year (26.5 points), as the Bills (-6.5) cover in almost 70% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here .

How to make Week 1 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 1 NFL schedule and just revealed four teams that win outright over 70% of the time. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine .

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which four favorites should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000 , and find out.