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NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model loves Bills, Chargers in Week 1, 2024
By CBS Sports Staff,
14 hours ago
USATSI
The Week 1 NFL schedule does not disappoint in 2024. The headliner features Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets traveling to face Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football. There are plenty of other NFL matchups to look forward to, including Steelers vs. Falcons, Cowboys vs. Browns and Rams vs. Lions. The latest Week 1 NFL odds list the 49ers as 3.5-point favorites over the Jets at home, one of the smaller NFL spreads of the week. The Falcons (-3) and Browns (-2.5) are favored at home, while the Colts are 2.5-point underdogs on home soil according to the latest NFL betting lines.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 185-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 39-21 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 1 NFL picks is that the Chargers (-3) cover the spread at home versus the Raiders . Los Angeles' offense will look vastly different in 2024 after wide receiver Keenan Allen and running back Austin Ekeler departed this offseason. Luckily for the Chargers, quarterback Justin Herbert enters the 2024 season healthy after dealing with injuries in 2023.
Herbert played in just 13 games last season but was effective in Los Angeles' 24-17 win over the Raiders on Oct. 1, 2023. Herbert threw for 167 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for 27 yards and two scores. He's had success against the Raiders throughout his career, throwing 15 passing touchdowns against just two interceptions while rushing for three scores. In addition, the Raiders are 1-5 in their last six games played in September. SportsLine's model sees that trend continuing in Week 1 as the Chargers cover the spread over 60% of the time in Jim Harbaugh's debut as Los Angeles' head coach. See which other teams to pick here .
Another one of its Week 1 NFL predictions: the Bills (-6.5) cover at home versus the Cardinals . SBuffalo has historically gotten off to a fast start in recent years. The Bills are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games played in September. In addition, Buffalo has covered the spread in each of its past five games against an opponent from the NFC West.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals have struggled mightily on the road, winning just two of their last 12 games away from home. Arizona has lost four of its last away games against the Bills, a trend the model expects to continue in Week 1. SportsLine's model predicts that Bills quarterback Josh Allen will have a big day against the Cardinals, projecting he'll throw for nearly 250 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 47 yards. Allen's productivity is a big reason why the Bills cover the spread in almost 70% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here .
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